Why aren’t we doing it like last year?!
Brentford, it would be different this time, wouldn't it?
In this article, @Allsoppwill dives into a patchy start and asks if there is something up with Brentford.
There’s been plenty of comments from the Bees Twitterati remarking on our performance in the league so far this season. They range from the reasonable (“Henry and Nørgaard are really valuable to our squad and I hope they recover soon!”) to the ridiculous (“Frank out!”). The loss at Preston before the international break put a dampener on what could have been a great September had the game gone the other way. There seems to be a general feeling that, without Watkins and Benrahma, we might struggle to reach the lofty heights of our 3rd place finish last season. Is it all down to two players? I’m going to analyse why, so far, we don’t seem quite as good as last year.
Raya vs Daniels
Amid the transfer speculation hovering like a Arsenal-red miasma over the head of the big Spaniard, Raya hasn’t been our league starter and instead the job has fallen to usual cup or backup goalkeeper Luke Daniels. Because he has such a different playing style compared to other ‘keepers we’ve had in the past, David stuck out as a big change for the better last season. Certain spectacular saves and prescient passes stick in the mind (eg. that Raya-Jensen-Watkins goal against Swansea), and he seems like a much more offensive player than Daniels - or at least that’s the impression I and others have gotten from watching them play.
Maybe part of the reason we’ve not been purring a la post-lockdown Brentford is because Daniels is missing opportunities to make Raya-styled Hollywood wow passes which lead to shots on goal. While those types of passes stand out in our memories as significant events, is it the volume and density of passes in the deeper back line that give Brentford much of their usual flowing feel?
Below we see the goalkeeper passing maps from the last two away matches against Millwall. The first features passing from Daniels in September's 1-1 draw and the second is Raya’s distribution from last season's 0-1 defeat at the Den.
Daniels v Millwall at The Den Sep 2020
Raya v Millwall at The Den 2019
Breaking it down, there is a likeness in pass directions when facing the same team on different occasions. (Millwall away in both 2019/20 and 20/21). It also bores out statistically as both goalkeepers have a similar percentage split between how many of their overall passes are short or medium in length. It seems as though Daniels is OK at playing the Brentford system, whereas Raya is a fundamental part of what makes it effective. It’s good to remember that passes like Raya’s to Jensen for the Swansea goal are almost always cut out by opposition (or the midfielder doesn’t time his run perfectly).
Raya v Coventry Oct 2020
Daniels v Preston Oct 2020
Luke is nowhere near as bad as some make him out to be, but as we have immediately seen in Raya’s flowing return against Coventry, it is the extra volume and location of passes that describes the Spaniard’s ability to more frequently act as a genuine third option on the ball between Pinnock and Jansson.
Passes made by Raya against Coventry - 54
Average passes made by Daniels in his 4 league games - 38.75
Thompson vs Henry
Rico Henry’s absence in the Millwall and PNE games has been touted as a large reason why Brentford’s performances didn’t seem up-to-scratch offensively. We seemed to struggle to break down both of those sides apart from the first 30 minutes or so against Preston. Was that because Rico’s passing, crossing and bombing runs down the left flank are being sorely missed? Sort of.
It is true that Dom Thompson has not been as prolific as Rico in some of the metrics which measure attacking contributions to the game. Henry has averaged 1 key pass (a pass which leads directly to an attempt on goal) so far this season, and was the 2nd highest defender in our squad for that metric last term at 0.7 per game. Only Henrik Dalsgaard contributed more (an average of 0.8 per game) from the opposite flank. In contrast, Dom has not made a key pass as yet in a Bees shirt, though it should absolutely be mentioned that he has played a lot less football than either Henrik or Rico. Whether or not you can judge a player on just 2 full games is up to you.
Thompson location of passes received and attempted v Millwall at The Den in Sep 2020
Henry locations of passes received and attempted v Millwall at The Den in Dec 2019
Formations, Low blocks and Pressing issues.
The other important consideration with the Birmingham, Millwall and Preston games is the formation of the opposition. PNE play a flexible 4-2-3-1 and Millwall have a 5-at-the-back - 523 system, both of which involve more players in the middle of the defensive third than an attack minded 4-4-3 or 4-4-2 shape. Could it be that Bees just struggle against these formations more than others? It's not quite as simple as that. Given the start of 20/21, Brentford have faced one side that wants to try to dominate the ball as much as they do - Huddersfield under new boss Corberán. It’s no coincidence to find that game finished up as a resounding 3-0 win. So why apart from this game have we seemed to struggle this season?
I think the answer is (at least) twofold. First, certainly contributing to the loss against PNE, was the early sub of Nørgaard for Jensen. Matthias is a great player, but he is nowhere near as good defensively, or at playing the ball through the middle than Christian is. Looking at pass maps for both of them, Jensen opts for far more recycling of the ball and spreading of play whereas Nørgaard can pick forward balls out easier, giving us the opportunity to cut through the extra men in the middle given by those formations.
Alongside this, when teams have enough confidence in themselves to set out to stop Brentford through their own tactics, they invariably do. The fact that a transitional phase for the club has been met with 4 out of 5 of 20/21s opening fixtures placing us up against reactive sides provides us with more clues behind the perceived sluggish start. Struggles against these sides is nothing new.
Our successes are invariably against possession based teams, inferior versions of Brentford who concentrate on their own game instead of stopping Brentford through defensive adjustments - think QPR, Wigan, Fulham, Derby, West Brom, Hull.
Conversely, of teams to press high or concede the middle third and spend time in a mid to low block ie Preston - press high, Millwall press high, Barnsley press high, Leeds - press high, Forest - low block, Old Huddersfield - low block, Stoke - low block, across the last 18 months a trend starts to emerge.
Once Brentford meet more of the teams that want to play ball, the quality of the squad should shine through.
The second reason is now a West Ham player - the loss of Saïd Benrahma’s quality on and off the ball. Previously a squad player, Sergi Canos has stepped into his shoes to replace the wing wizard at disparate levels of acceptance.
The Algerian was responsible for 2.1 key passes per game last season, 0.5 ahead of the next-best player. His passing, shooting and dribbling ability was not perfect but consistently dangerous, and combining with Henry, Dasilva and Watkins, he went a long way to neutralising the central overloads that 2 midfield pivots in front of a back 4 or 3 give the opponent in the defensive third.
Ghosting inside off the wing to receive the ball or creating overloads on the left hand wing were his quiet specialities. When most passes from others players would end up incomplete, he would try and try again until there was a breakthrough leading to chances and decisive goals or the final whistle got the better of him. Plus, he had the cojones and skill required for a 30 yard worldie if a team were stubborn or impassable. Canos, Thompson and Dasilva have briefly shown glimpses of combining to replicate the way our left wing worked last year. Let’s hope as we go on throughout the season, Ghoddos, Dasilva, Canos, Henry and Emiliano can combine to fill the void he unfortunately leaves in our passing, ball carrying and shooting game.
In summary, the alarm bells are absolutely not ringing yet. One poor performance after a hard-fought draw doesn’t mean that the manager should be sacked or that we’re going to be much worse off than last year. Betting odds still have Brentford as favourites for the league title. Like it has happened before, new signings will bed in and start influencing games. Toney, looking deadlier with each passing minute has already proved that. Ghoddos, Janelt, and Fosu will follow just like Jensen, Nørgaard, and Pinnock did in 19/20. Only time will tell, of course, and key passes and Expected Goals don’t change the final table, but early signs are good and I think we’re going to be fine.
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