What we’re reading between the lines
Patreon Weekly Newsletter Nov 13th - unlocked - International Special
Hello!
Each week we’ll put together a curated list of the best of what we’re reading from around the web. This list won’t feature much on Brentford, directly, and sometimes it won’t even feature football.
This week’s curated list is below. Enjoy.
Brentford have undergone somewhat of an evolution in recent years. Transitioning away from a team that had to be taking shots otherwise it conceded, the efficiency we now see in front of goal has been cultivated through endless tactical work and an upgrade in personnel.
Single game Expected Goals totals go some way to placing a value on team attacking and defending output during match, but we're only really scratching the surface with the metric in terms of usefulness as a standalone measure.
For instance, we know that two teams each amassing 1 Expected Goal are not necessarily equal. The chance that either of those team's individual shots turn into goals to see them go on and win a football match can have huge disparities.
Put briefly, running 1000s of simulations of a contrived football match where both teams create “1 xG", the probability of a win is statistically more likely an outcome if Team A creates two chances with a value of 0.5, than Team B who creates twenty chances with a value of 0.05. Efficiency is key here due to the broader outcomes and larger degree of variance when taking a higher number of low value shots. They effectively become less dependable.
That's a long winded way to introduce an excellent two part piece looking at the 19/20 Premier League in terms of team efficiency and effectiveness, and what is or is not given up to excel at the other. Any guesses as to the direction Brentford have been heading in?
https://www.esdfanalysis.com/match-analysis/efficiency-and-effectiveness-in-football/
https://www.esdfanalysis.com/match-analysis/efficiency-and-effectiveness-in-football-part-2/
The term "power couple" sounds like it belongs in an era of trashy celebrity magazines and early reality TV stars frolicking for their 15 minutes of fame. With a somewhat crass definition of two people of great influence and success in their own right, it might be time redefine the term.
Meghan Rapinoe and Sue Bird are two of the planets genuine superstars and they also happen to be a couple. Exceptional athletes in their own right, statistically and in terms of team and personal honours, they have dominated their respective sports of Soccer and Basketball for many years. They became an official couple in 2017 but it is what has happened to their performance numbers since that moment that makes for fascinating reading. They got even better, together.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sue-bird-and-megan-rapinoe-have-gotten-better-together/
And lastly, as football continues without fans and England is in the grip of another national lockdown, shorter daylight hours and a drop in average temperature would not be many people’s choice antidote to lift the mood in the room.
We could all do with a pick-me-up given we are in the midst of a global pandemic, but do the characteristics of winter have to double down on that tragedy? The wintertime mindset scale designed by Kari Leibowitz was a cog in a larger part of research looking at how those living in the most extreme parts of the planet still found positivity and coping mechanisms with as little as two or three hours of sunlight a day!
David Robinson for The Guardian knits it tightly together in this wellbeing piece titled "Dreading a dark winter lockdown? Think like a Norwegian"
Happy Reading! The international break will be over soon, we promise. And don't forget to share Bees Tactical with anyone you think may be interested.
https://www.patreon.com/BeesTactical
https://beestactical.substack.com/people/5760479-bees-tactical