#WestBromwichAlbionFC v #BrentfordFC
The Hawthorns - 3pm
With Fulham wholly dispatched in one of the most comprehensive 1-0 victories you’re likely to see, Brentford next travel to the midlands to take on the leagues pace setters, West Bromwich Albion.
Their tête-à-tête with Leeds at the top of table is seen as a face off between the two most consistent sides, attacking heavyweights, both a rung above everything else the league has to offer.
Picking up headline making wins against Swansea and Bristol City, Bilic’s side has undoubtedly been ruthless in front of goal. Losing only once, they are the league's leading scorers with 45 goals in 22 games. The next best in terms of goals scored are a batch of clubs, including Leeds, on 35.
So what do West Brom do well?
Lining up in a preferred 4-2-3-1 system, this classic counter attacking formation perfectly suits the first 11.
In attack they’re 6th for the amount of shots they’re taking per game, converting those shots into goals at an astonishing rate of 15%.
Their success has largely been down to the attacking contributions of front men, Periera, Diangana and centre forward Charlie Austin alternating with Robson-Kanu. Philips is less fashionable but equally important, offering goals, chance creation, impressive running with the ball and an ability to get into the box from the ball far side.
Versatile young fullback Ferguson can operate from both flanks and it is his ability to travel with the ball and protect it at speed that compliments the forwards and gives the side further progressive dimensions.
On facing this West Brom shape, when the ball breaks down or you lose possession in the opponents half, the last player a side would want the ball to fall to is Romaine Sawyers.
His ability when playing the first or second pass after a turnover is ruthless. He must be pressed, and if not, the next best option is to limit his vertical options. Difficulty here in facing Sawyers is further compounded due to his timing and patience.
If the forward pass is not on or he feels the phase requires another pass to remove more opponents from the game, he’ll comfortably go square and pass to a player in a better position, possibly Livermore or out wide to Ferguson who will have an improved angle to find an advanced player or move forward with the ball themselves.
Season 18/19 at Brentford was his best yet, again playing in a midfield pair but in a 343 system to protect Brentford’s weaknesses in defence. Now partnered with Livermore, a destructive, ball playing competent attacking central midfielder himself, we’re seeing Sawyers further able to exert his quality onto matches.
Talk around Sawyers has changed since his time at Brentford. Questions on his ability to lead and whether or not he was even making valuable on pitch contributions were continuous throughout his tenure at Griffin Park.
https://medium.com/@DavidAnderson_1/brentford-fc-romaine-sawyers-16bd4ce58e76
As he is now playing at a bigger club, the narrative around him has naturally shifted up a notch, as shown here by coverage of Sawyers in a recent article in The Athletic.
Expect the Brentford midfield and forward line will be fully aware of what they need to do in and around Sawyers.
So how do you stop West Brom?
When the ball is given up to West Brom, teams need a coherent strategy for getting the ball back quickly. If not able to regain possession in the seconds after it has been lost, the next best option for opponents must be the transfer back into their default defensive shape as soon as physically possible.
It’s far easier said than done and transitioning back into this shape in desperation forces teams into making fouls in dangerous areas. Periera has taken full advantage of these resulting dead ball situations.
West Brom are leading the way in expected goal difference from counter attacking situations so the principles around counter-pressing and preventing transitions are really key to stopping West Brom in open play.
Not only are adventurous opponents caught without a plan when giving the ball away, many seem to also show a lack of pragmatism from the outset.
The 5-1 demolition of Swansea at The Hawthorns is a perfect case in point. Swansea revealed their plan in the first 10 minutes, regularly pushing 8+ players into the West Brom half. They had done little to no homework on the strengths of West Brom in playing such a high line at the back, commiting so many bodies forward and leaving Kanu 2v1.
The issue they and others face is how quickly Diangana and Periera are able to get close and join in with Robson-Kanu in attack, giving centre backs the dilemma of player on the ball or runner. Playing 2v1 with so many players high up is naive.
From this tactic, West Brom were able to develop multiple big moments from their ideal counter attacking situations before finally opening the scoring form a set-piece in the 25th minute.
Swansea are looking inept out of possession and have huge functional problems, whereas Brentford are this year much improved at defending in all three zones of the pitch, particularly mid to low.
Now also comfortable sitting in a low block due to an upgrade in process and ability across all central defensive areas, Raya, Jansson, Pinnock and Norgaard is finally a spine to build a genuine promotion push on.
Previous versions of this side relied solely on a high press to protect their midfield and fragile centre backs. Once beyond this first line it has always been far too easy to create chances against Brentford.
Still working on fully preventing big chances away from home, teams are almost routinely shut out and struggle to get dangerous shots off at Griffin Park.
This isn't necessarily the case for West Brom.
They’re conceding an astonishing amount of shots for a side at the top of the table. If we take for example QPR, widely deemed as one of the worst defensive outfits in the league, West Brom concede almost an identical amount of shots per game, 11.6
In defence, WBA are currently outperforming their numbers and the trend doesn’t look to be getting better over the last batch of fixtures.
Opponents are currently converting shots against them at a rate of just 9%. QPR’s opponents are converting at almost doouble that rate per game, 16.8%
You’d expect shot quality against to throw up something here for that kind of conversion swing between two sides but we have QPR expected to concede around 28 non-penalty goals and WBA expeted to concede 25.5.
Non-penalty expected goals against have West Brom only slightly above average and much closer to the process of a QPR than the defensive numbers we’re seeing from Brentford (17.5xGA) or Leeds (16xGA).
Sam Johnstone in goal may have something to say about WBA keeping the opposition score down, post shot xG picks up that he has saved a couple of goals against what he is expected to concede. Again, not enough to convince you that something exceptional is going on.
When you try to make such a case at the back for a side at the top of the league and easier assessment is the leagues goal scorers are possibly riding their luck and papering over some not unfixable cracks at the back.
West Brom are happy to wait for teams to make mistakes, lulling them into a complacent touch and then biting to win possession back. From their shots against numbers we can see that they’re not particularly good at preventing efforts on goal.
Going back to the point in the first few paragraphs, delving behind the performance of Leeds and West Brom at the top, only one of the two look to have built their points total on firm sustainable performance.
If teams tactically switch on and begin to convert the chances they are creating vs Bilic’s side, we could see a regression in the rate of points being picked up and possibly Leeds opening up a gap at the top of the table.
It was against Leeds at Elland Road that saw West Brom’s only defeat this season.
This was a hard fought win for Whites and the only game where Bielsa’s highly tuned side have been dominated and forced to spend much time on the edge of their own box.
“Forced” could be wrong. Bielsa may have seen this as a different kind of control and would have been well aware of WBA capability in counter attacking situations, so potentially prepared and set up his side to feel comfortable in a situation normally alien to them.
Leeds held out and we could see a similar tactic adopted by Brentford. Frank has built a side more thancompetent and comfortable out of possession, with that a far greater desire and ability to regain the ball.
Defensively Brentford will slot into a 451 formation in which the one up can can alternate between the front three.
Josh Dasilva, who played alongside Sawyers, will be tasked with breaking WBA midfield lines and helping the ball towards the either of the front 3.
WBA v BFC is going to be a facinating battle.