Games are coming thicker and faster proving it a wonder any of the players are still able to stand.
A quick check on the xG table shows Bees next opponents Hornets doing just enough in attack and defence to genuinely threaten the top of the league.
Back to Hughton’s Forest, briefly, & how they are the antithesis to old Forest.
The Ex-Brighton boss has moved away from a deep blocking low possession 4-2-3-1 team which used a double pivot of Sow and Watson to protect the game at all times.
Conversely, he opts for one holding or disciplined defensive midfielder and two advanced mids in front. There are similarities with how Brentford construct their midfield without the rigor or movement to cope with a team like Bees out of possession.
On the ball there are benefits, progressive options on the diagonal naturally occur but out of possession, if organisation combined with ball pressures isn't performed quickly enough good opponents can start dangerous possessions.
We pick this phase up here just after Raya has played out to Dalsgaard wide on the right touchline. The RB wins the header v Ameobi and the ball is quickly gathered under control and easily played inside to Janelt in space.
Arter has naturally been attracted to this side as he is playing to the left of the midfield triangle. He is possibly defending a flick on or the space but not the dangerous area behind Taylor.
Bees are effective at moving the ball from one wing to the other. Forest’s previous style used the double pivot with 3 narrow in front aiming to block routes forward & deal with switches without much disruption to the defensive shape.
Once this ball is moved inside to Janelt Arter desperately tries to get back into the new “Hughton” comfortable defensive shape. It isn’t going to be effective because Janelt is so open he can scan the entire pitch.
He has options ahead in Toney, Mbeumo is making a run down the right wing, Fosu has come inside to the 10 pocket and Jensen is square to his left. Lolley is ball watching and Rico Henry is about to make a run down the left.
Janelt fakes to go to Fosu as Yates realises and tries to react to what is behind him. Instead, taking all of the midfielders out of the game, he goes to Toney who looks for a first time lay-off to Fosu.
Midfield felt confused for Forest i.e. not knowing when to pressure the ball or drop back into shape contributing to why Bees felt so dominant for the first half hour. Control for Hughton only came in the form of attacking.
It’s difficult to know if Forest yet think they’re comfortable out of possession or not. I suspect they do, which is a concern due to how easily they were played through both for when they come up against midrange opposition and the strongest teams.
Hughton’s attacking process is good, on the ball Forest have improved considerably. Central midfielders try to link up with wide partnership combinations showing a genuine attempt to support attacks instead of looking safe and killing time.
Conceding three in the way they did against Brentford will undoubtedly hurt. The first from a set-piece and the second and third a long punt upfield and a brilliantly executed counter-attack coming either side of spells where Forest dominated.
Get the defensive system sorted and Forest’s attack should see them ease their way up the table. Will the turnaround happen before trigger happy owners panic at a string of poor results?
Why Watford are unlikely to concede three goals.
Watford have two systems they can comfortably flip between, both centered around being resolute in defence and solid in midfield. Attackers are left on their own to roam free and use their own strengths to create space to shoot.
3-5-2 used against QPR allows them to get three centre-backs on the pitch and two defensive yet midfielders in front. What the midfielders do once they get the ball is not important.
4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1 keeps the defensive, workmanlike midfield integrity as wide forward drop back to create a midfield 5 out of possession, leaving the lone forward isolated.
Central midfielders are destructive in this team as opposed to a source of attacking play; they appear as defensive minded tools for Ivić. When they win possession they’re happy to slow down and halt counter attacks to preserve the structure.
As a tactic to probably unsettle Birmingham’s back 5 we did see early balls pumped down the wings or around the corner or hit towards Deeney or for wingers to contest. It was basic, uncomplicated stuff with very few box entries or creative patterns.
Against QPR, Watford’s aim with their 3-5-2 was to frustrate by flooding the midfield and leaving their defensive three to match up man for man bringing two wing backs back to prevent attacks building out wide.
In this instance, QPR attacked with a central 4 with Samuel and Chair both coming into the 10 areas together. Watford have their back 5 in place with two DMs in front almost goading Carroll to go wide and trust Kiko Femenia 1v1 wide.
This attack led to one of QPR’s biggest chances of the game so Watford are not infallible. Chair is clever in picking up the ball in the space in front of Wilmot.
Brentford haven't been able to consistently attack centrally like this since Benrahma & Mbeumo linked well with Watkins & Dasilva. It is the type of movement good at unsettling a team so adamant on being numerically superior at the back.
Another option for Bees to counteract Hornets could be to play Forss wide left. If Ivić does use a wing back system Forss can allow Henry to cover behind him & pin himself on Wilmot at RCB safe in the knowledge he isn't going to travel far.
Watford are at home so they should be confident in taking the game to Brentford but will be wary of what that entails in terms of traps - see Nottingham Forest.
Because of this, we feel Watford will go for the 3-5-2 or 3-4-2-1 shape that emphasises their solidity, able to keep a strong attacking team at bay as well as the ability to steal a goal at the other end.