A top of the table clash is up next as Thomas Frank and Steve Cooper, who have both worked their way up through youth football, lead two of the Championships most feared clubs.
Some tactical musings ahead of Swansea City FC v Brentford FC
November’s 1-1 draw at The Brentford Community Stadium feels like an age ago. Since the draw, both teams have further imposed themselves on the league to be ever present around the summit of the Championship.
However, a quick check at our xPts table reveals Swansea are doing something special in either defence or attack. We’re at the midway point of the season, way beyond the stage to attribute more weight to actual goals, yet underlying performance and the word Swans cannot be ignored.
Heading into the midweek fixtures, our points table has Swansea bunched in with QPR, Stoke, Millwall and Barnsley when sifting through 24 games of shot data and dominance. It makes for interesting reading as this has been going on for a long period of time as Brentford, Watford and Norwich set the xPts pace.
We were fortunate enough to have David Anderson and Ben Church chat about Swansea for over an hour ahead of this fixture and it was revealing how much of a surprise Copper’s defensive over-performance was to Ben.
The Welsh side have conceded only 13 goals in 24 games exceeding what they would be expected to concede by almost 10 goals.
The next lowest for goals conceded are Watford with 18 which feels like it makes sense watching them sit back and contain for almost half a season under Jakanovic.
Back to Swansea and the approximate 10 goals they’ve avoided is a notable difference and easily the most in the league by this measure. When this kind of thing happens after 24 games the default assessment is that of a side benefiting from a large dose of luck or that there’s something various expected goals models aren’t picking up on.
@JackArmy_ Ben on the podcast noted a shift last season and what started out as an experiment with 3-5-2 as a system has turned into one of the most recognizable shapes in the league. Cooper hasn't looked back since the switch which saw Swansea go on a strong run at the end of last season to benefit from a lucky swing on the final day and sneak his team into the playoffs.
We all know what happened after two legs against Brentford but what also occurred was a long term decision that the principles of 3-5-2 offered enough when matched with the playing squad to continue with the system as opposed to ripping it up and moving back to something like the spluttering 4-2-3-1.
Season 20/21 has seen Jamal Lowe and Korey Smith come into the side doubling down on the positive counter attacking elements of 3-5-2.
Before we go onto this, we should mention the obvious benefits of the switch and how it suits Jake Bidwell, Connor Roberts, the three centre backs, most often Guehi, Cabango and Ryan Bennet, who is a shrewd pickup with Premier League miles on the clock.
So, without the ball we now see this shape with Swansea.
They comfortably move into a back five with three central midfielders in front. That’s a base of 8 players almost always behind the ball leaving the two forwards, Lowe and Ayew to frustrate and press a back line following the ball wide or central.
Both can drop deeper and slot in becoming more compact with the midfielders if the team is ahead, or, knowing how many players are defensively minded behind them in Fulton, Grimes, Smith and the 3 centre backs and wingbacks, they can stretch the game the other way. Waiting in the middle or final third on the shoulder, much of their off ball work is done by moving around a backline or pulling into the wide areas where fullbacks have pushed on to support an attack. It's a tactic they appear to regularly benefit from.
Having space to run into, 1v1 situations or isolating a fullback all suit Lowe’s game well. As a converted winger, similar to what we at Brentford saw with Watkins, he’s happy travelling large distances with the ball and holding off or going past defenders.
The difference between Brentford and Swansea is the number of defensive minded players behind the ball. Once in the lead it’s naturally a difficult system to cut through and although Expected Goals Against data plus the sheer number of shots conceded shows Swansea not particularly excelling, scoring first, being ahead and having the committed defensive structure they do is possibly where models are missing out on their better work. That being said, we’re not sure we believe this ourselves watching the video back. Watching their goals and reviewing teams desperately chasing small deficits and seeing Swansea going up the other end and finishing them off on the break for 2-0 has certainly happened too many times for it to be dismissed as lucky yet there is a strong sense of them benefiting from some wild finishing and opposition downturns in front of goal.
Cooper’s midfield selection should reveal his early aspirations for the game.
When Dhanda comes in, the midfield takes the shape of a double pivot or two 6s with an almost 8/10 hybrid positioned just in front. Gallagher performed the advanced midfield role well last season. The double pivot can feature any two of most used midfield three in Smith, Grimes or Fulton.
Our thinking is Cooper likes the security of three defensive minded midfield players, but also likes the third player breaking from midfield out of possession and into the forward line to help block teams particularly adept at build up in their own third.
Dhanda featured against Brentford back in November and he also played in the 2-0 win vs QPR on Boxing Day.
Connor Hourihane has joined on loan and his selection fits in with being solid in midfield able to hold his position as part of the blocking midfield three. He gives the midfield further energy behind the ball but will show further willingness compared to the others in trying to get Swansea moving and having attacking possession through the centre, not so transfixed with progression down the wings.
From a Brentford perspective, the 1-1 draw in November will still hurt. Charlie Goode played that night and occasionally struggled in possession and linking with Pinnock off the ball.
That has been almost entirely ironed out as Mads Bech Sørensen has come into the backline to show himself as the best available defensive option on the ball in build up, when the team is sitting deep to defend, or in attack with long throws.
Below are clips of his throw leading to Rico Henry's shot against Luton and then him dominating Watford’s back line at a freekick to knock down for a Dalsgaard blocked effort right in the middle of the goal. He’s a physical anomaly and difficult to mark when he gets moving, especially when he gets on the wrong side of his marker.
Wingbacks being in the correct position at all times is vital for the 3-5-2 system to work.
Toney’s goal last time the teams played was brutal in how it exposed the flaws of 3-5-2 with the move starting and finishing with Jensen breaking form midfield.
Because they are asked to provide width in attacking phases as well as outside defensive cover for centre backs who naturally want to hover and block the spaces in front of goal instead of coming into those wider regions, they can leave huge spaces down the wings.
When Jensen collects the ball from Pinnock Mbeumo is way beyond Bidwell who is caught in an advanced position as a move breaks down. He never works hard enough to get back in and in a matter of seconds Guehi is left to face Mbeumo 1v1.
Jensen makes a clever run to follow his pass outside of Mbeumo as the Swansea LCB tries to stand up and delay the right winger. Bidwell, still watching and jogging, is punished thinking the move is going to go central earlier giving him no time to get back or is in the belief that adequate players have this move covered.
Jensen prays on the assumption and as three players are sucked into protecting the goal he’s able to perfectly place a cut back evading the defence to Toney right in front of goal.
Kyle Naughton will be angry at himself at not having a better position because the speed and accuracy of the pass from Jensen takes him out of the game at full stretch. Does he ever know where Toney is? At the time of connection, Marcondes finds his way into the box and is able to finish if Toney wasn't there.
If we view the two most favoured shapes in their simplest form, Swansea are going to have to demand Roberts and Bidwell get their positioning right.
From an in possession stance, Swansea mainly progress up the field and attack down the wings. Pushing either full back high is both how they can prosper and also get caught out if midfielders don't cover the space in behind. If the spaces left by those forward runs are not filled when moves break down it can lead to advanced midfielders or wide forwards pulling the left and right centre backs into uncomfortable positions.
Rico Henry, Sergi Canos and Mbeumo have hurt Swansea before.