Stoke City FC v Brentford FC - Tactical Preview
Bet 365 Stadium - 24/10/20
After a trip to Sheffield, Brentford have no time to breathe before a visit to The Bet 365 Stadium, Stoke. O’Neill & Frank will have to squeeze everything out of squads pushed for recovery time.
Stoke City have had a consistent shape straddling two seasons, 532 recognizable in and out of possession. We have seen a third forward flex into the frontline in fleeting moments during MON’s tenure.
We are noticing an evolution this year when they are on the ball in the defensive third or playing out from the goalkeeper.
Harry Souttar had a season long loan at Fleetwood town under Joey Barton and spent a lot of time holding onto the ball and playing out from the back.
It cost him and his side at a pivotal time as they ended up losing out to Wycombe but Souttar was only on loan and returned to his parent club to test himself in the division above.
The reason we’ve focussed on Souttar is because he has been a big part of Stoke's transformation from a side pretending to build up and play around the back to a side comfortable in doing so regularly.
Souttar has played right centre back of a back three and in the central position and it is the central roles that have caught our eye.
Shawcross didn’t ever look comfortable making multiple passes and as MON wanted to evolve an already successful side into one that can control more of the game, better footballers need to come into the team.
Completely by chance, Barnsley are regularly featured as the pressers in our previews.
We can see the use of two Barnsley players in the frontline when Stoke are trying to play out in this situation. What is interesting is how fixated Souttar, playing centrally of the three, is at the gap between the two forwards.
With attacking intent on the ball, if Thompson alters his positioning and moves into the centre, Souttar has the confidence in his ability looking at his body shape to break the line.
Instead, Thompson can’t move into position and the ball reluctantly goes left with Souttar demanding it goes wide again as quick as possible.
Last week, we looked at the different types of pressing from the front Barnsley when teams are playing out from Barnsley. Brentford almost exclusively press with a front three because there is a genuine desire to win the ball rather than allow a team to progress down the wings.
It should be made clear that Stoke were gifted their equalizing goal through Barnsley keeper Walton taking his eye off an overhit cross that seemed an easy take. Everyone, including left back Oduor watching on had stopped, apart from wingback back Smith who delicately swept home first time with plenty to do.
Stoke equalized on around 50 mins and went down to 10 men on 60 when Collins was sent off and held out for the remainder of the game.
O’Neill has unfairly been questioned on his back three system with little to answer.
It functions well enough defensively, if a short bit back compared to last season and is better in possession.
In attack the forward line of choice looks settled with Fletcher and Campbell. Campbell has the flexibility to run beyond the defensive line into channels as well as cross and dribble inside when playing on the right. Dalsgaard will have a competitive battle on his hands
Similarly to how Paterson acts at the tip if a midfield pair behind him, Powell gives Stoke more options to feet as well as the ability off the ball. Supported by a Mikel and Thompson pivot Stoke are secure out wide and through middle third.
The last time Fletcher led the line against Brentford he featured in a front two for Sheffield Wednesday. In the last match before lockdown, Wednesday set up in a 442 shape out of possession and gave Brentford one of the easiest opponents they have ever played against. When the ball was played out short to Dalsgaard at RB simple passing lanes to the next line were open and Fletcher’s lack of animation or interest was startling.
Brentford lost to Stoke in a vital game on the 18th August because Gregory, Powell and Vokes as a three pressed the Brentford backline into oblivion. It was a difficult and suffocating game after a long season and some of the on ball limitations of Brentford's players, put under more pressure than they had been used, to began to show.
The front three pressed high as Powell joined in and out of possession Stoke at times moved into a back 5+1 as McClean blocked the left hand side.
Bees finished the game in all out attack mode but it was not to be as Gregory’s strike proved decisive. It was Sergi Canos’s big day, returning to the side after a long injury lay-off. Canos is in a difficult spot and has contributed his share to the team not linking midfield and attack as smoothly as it had done prior.
If there is to be a choice, Brentford would prefer to play their build up game against a forward line featuring Fletcher than one featuring Gregory or Vokes, especially if Jansson misses out through injury and MB Sorensen has to deputise.
Brentford’s starting lineup will be fascinating. Ghoddos and Janelt came into the team and looked like they had been playing for Brentford for a number of years.
Janelt was commanding in his role as the pivot, rotating and swapping positions with Dasilva and Jensen at times to greater effect than Norgaard had managed.
Even though Toney managed to score another brace, for us, it was Ghoddos who stole the show.
A quick shot here shows Jansson about to receive the ball square from Pinnock. Ghoddos has pulled central on the blindside of poor Barry Bannan, who was pushed to the ends of the earth tracking Josh Dasilva all evening.
Jannson opens his body and with an impressive forward pass, which he is unable to make if Canos is on the pitch because the receiver is not there, cuts out of the game seven Sheffield Wednesday players.
And again a few minutes on.
This type of positioning is partly why Brentford have at times looked stodgy moving between the lines in the early hames. If you blur your eyes this could be an ex-Brentford player who had the ability to drift inside and find space where others can't.
Toney is the man of the moment with the big goal threat to lead the scoring charts. He is converting chances at an astonishing rate which cannot continue. Can it?
Ivan is now out performing his expected goals so do not be surprised to see a lull as he comes back down to non-super hero rates of scoring.
Hovering around a 20% conversion rate and converting 4 out of 5 non-penalty big chances his ability to pin himself up against centre backs and aerial threat was never in question.
Running the channels, linking with midfielders, dribbling and carrying the ball over distances is the next step, which seems silly in it’s critical nature when a striker is scoring so frequently.
As games develop it is noticeable how Brentford’s defensive shape if falling into a clearer 451 with Toney largely detached as opposed to a 433 compact team shape when Watkins was flanked out of possession by Mbeumo and Benrahma.
Reasons behind this can be two or three-fold. As it has been infrequent enough to only cross our minds when rewatching games, it is a trend that needs to be watched out for and something we’ll look into deeper on the Patreon side.
Whether purposely keeping Toney high is a ploy to compensate for his inferior ball carrying ability to Watkins, taking the former Posh striker away from the goal has a greater effect on the team as opposed to Watkins who would happily carry the ball 50 yards reminiscing his winger days.
Predicted line-ups below for the tie at The Bet 365 -
Stoke have not played as ultra defensive as they have done in the past. Our preview prior to last season's match looked at how Leeds rotate and move players into their forward line to unsettle deep blocks with particularly clever use of Klich and Ayling, who starts at RCB.
Brentford have struggled against deep blocks and Michael O’neills own quest to improve his teams on ball ambitions could suit Thomas Frank here. If Stoke take up the shape and positions of Sheffield Wednesday it could be a successful day.
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