Michael O’Neill’s 541 and how to counteract it?
With Stoke City up next, Brentford face a team that doesn’t make a lot of sense and are a difficult side to read. Underlying numbers over a long period show that they should not be at the bottom end of the table, the question we’re continually asking of Stoke is are they mixing it at the wrong end due to their players and the stylistic choices of recent managers?
There’s no doubt The Bees struggled to break through deep defences pre-lockdown.
The addition of elite long range strikes can turn draws into wins and has given opposing managers more to think about, but the open play issue in moving a back five out of it’s set position to create space has haunted Frank at various points across the season. Post lockdown, the difficult or more frustrating games have been against teams who want to play a shape with higher numbers set in their defensive third. Charlton and Preston have come closest to taking points from their games.
The Potters have two distinct formations. A 433 shape with Clucus operating on the left of midfield, and the one we are more interested in, a 532 or 541 variation depending on the selection of Campbell out wide. In recent matches we’ve seen both shapes used, MON started against Leeds with his 541 defensive formation, trying to ask his main question of opponents, can you break us down? How you counteract that defensive shape are more along the lines of the types of questions Bielsa and Thomas Frank are asking of themselves.
The graphic above shows how Stoke started against Leeds and then adapted throughout the game. Taking into account Leeds scored five as well as hitting the woodwork and having shots cleared off the line, the answer to O’Neills’ question that we posed earlier, was a resounding yes, as Stoke were obliterated.
The midfield three has taken form in Cousins holding in a deeper role with two eights / tens in front of him in Nick Powell and Clucas. The inverted pyramid seen on the pitches to the right against Leeds have similarities in how Brentford line up with Dasilva and Marcondes/Jensen ahead of Nørgaard.
They couldn't be further apart in execution as Stoke spend much of their time without the ball and flat in a defensive midfield line or three or five, rarely seeing the benefits or progressive passing angles a possession based midfield triangle sees.
McClean and Clucas down Stokes left hand side offer them left footed balance and defensive structure without causing teams much threat from open play. McClean can almost look like a secondary left-back when playing as the left wide forward or wingback and this is where we stumble in trying to discover the long term intentions of the side. Stoke spend too much time looking like this.
Lee Gregory returned in their last match against Bristol, a 1-1 draw, and he offers an off the ball intensity not seen by any of his squad mates. Gregory tweaks the shape and we see something closer to this when he features.
Even when playing the back four, McClean can look like a hybrid defensive wide back.
For another time we can look at the benefits of playing players on the opposite wing to their stronger foot.
Going back to the confusion of Stoke City, observing the top end of the table, teams fighting for promotion or automatic spots, apart from Nottingham Forest, have either a ball dominance intention or they apply pressure at the top end of the pitch.
Stoke fall into a group of teams happy to apply no pressure in the final third. Their players only begin to engage the opposition when the ball goes into the middle zone. The middle zone is still defended tentatively and it is this passive approach to winning the ball back that is routinely their downfall. Over 90 minutes you can find ways to game Expected Goals back in your favour via the state of the game or set pieces, which could well be what they’re looking for. Give the game a slow tempo and hope your opponents mirror you in staying set appears to be their route to success. Stoke show little in the way of player rotation or ambition and profit in games where their opposition ambition is of a relative level. Long balls forward balls or out into wide channels has distinct benefits for the team Brentford faced last time out in Preston. Maguire, Stockley and others have the mobility and strength to turn territory ball into their favour.
Watching how ineffective Stoke were in recent games against strong in attack, ball dominant sides like Wigan and Leeds offered up revealing insight.
In these types of matches, MON is trying to minimize transitional situations. Not blessed with speed, his backline has strengths in areas like physicality and heading away crosses. Forgiving control in the final and middle third giving his defenders the least amount of movement up and down the field proves their prioritisation of the set defensive position. They explicitly so not want quick intricate play around their defenders feet but this is what you run the risk of as teams at the top of the Championship possess intricate and inventive talent in their forward lines. Deeper beyond this, the best teams are now using their defenders to move the ball quickly into the final third to speed up answers to Bielsa’s game question of opening up a low block.
We’ve recently spoken about the differences between defending deep with a back five compared to a back four and how the midfield line in front of this combines to try to flood traditional half spaces.
Using Reading as an example, ff Benrahma does receive the ball beyond Swift and Richards, Moore can step out to front him up with the knowledge that Morrison is narrow to the right making stepping left and covering that route to goal less demanding, as he would be if he was positionally spread covering the space in his back four.
Defending deep in either formation can work, as Nottingham Forest have expertly shown with their 4231., athough the shine seems to be wearing off in the format of post lockdown football. Whether Stoke deep defend well enough to give up so much control of the pitch is beyond questionable. Gregory’s return to the forward line may change this dynamic as Vokes could be dropped who is grouped into a list of players who are the polar opposites to what we see from Watkins and Bamford out of possession, in Martin, Mitrovic or Fletcher.
This space defending passive approach to pressing was on show in the Wigan hammering of Stoke City at the DW.
We regularly saw Latics defenders Kipre and Balogun playing more like midfielders in possession. This is a direct result from the choice of Stoke to not press the final third.
Kipre’s passing map shows how advanced into Stoke’s territory the centre back was able to fin himself. It’s a similar story with left centre back Balogun’s map below.
Contrast that with Danny Batth in possession against Leeds at Elland Road and we see the pass map of a player harried into regularly turning over the ball as he panics to move it to safety.
Where Batth has caused damage is at the opposite end of the pitch. Two goals in his last two games from deep crosses that both should have been prevented from coming in and also dealt with by defenders has seen the Stoke centre back out muscle and out-anticipate his markers.
Playing three recognizable centre backs absolutely has its benefits in attacking set pieces if the delivery is right. Clucas and McClean will routinely cross into the box or put free kicks from range into the danger area for knockdowns or attempts at goal.
With The Potters defending so deep we expect them to be called into making last ditch blocks if they’re to get anything out of the fixture.
For Brentford to come out on top we’ll take a quick look at some of the movements they have displayed against other sides and will likely have to get right to unsettle Stoke’s flooded backline.
Below you can see Stokes’ back five against Leeds, a fascinating glimpse into attack v defence.
Ayling and Costa on the right make it their duty to try to unsettle.
In this particular shot we can see McClean in the left back position marking Costa but also how it is only him that is aware of Ayling in the right back area. Martins Indi has shifted around to find himself at centre back marking Bamford through Stokes’ obsession with outnumbering opponents on the side that the ball is in. This tactic forgets how quickly good teams switch play to an engaged opposite wing. The ball doesn't make its way across in this particular phase but it is a sign of things to come.
Ayling sees a 3v3 behind him most of the game and knows he can advance moving to the forward line and outside of Costa as he moves inside.
As Costa drifts towards centre, we regularly see confusion unfold as in this instance McClean tries to alert Clucas or Martins indi to the winger having a secondary issue of Indi being occupied with what is in his eyeline, Klich.
The ball gets recycled and Ayling finds himself completely unmarked as Stoke frantically try to pass on players they are marking. Clucas never really joins in and what is supposed to be a strong left side filled with players who have played left back and left wing gets sucked into doing neither defensive or attacking duties well.
Leeds wore Stoke down by circulating the ball along their back line, moving the wide players inside all while making sure the players on the opposite wings used that time to free themselves of markers. Tyler Roberts did well linking the forward and midfield lines offering progressive opportunities to his defenders or Kalvin Philips in midfield.
Brentford will look to do much the same.
As with his 3rd minute effort that strikes the post against Derby, we should see Mbeumo come off his wing. Close to the start of the game, we see Marcondes move into the forward line and make himself a priority for left back Lowe who can’t yet concern himself with Mbeumo who has pushed high unmarked.
Pinnock has no pressure on him in possession and has a long ball out wide to the Frenchman in the RWF position.
Good control moves the ball inside and onto his stronger foot naturally taking him towards goal. He has the option of Watkins or going across field to Jensen or Benrahma.
He chooses Jensen but soon he is going to find himself on the shoulder of the Derby back line in between Clarke and Evans. Neither has in their mind right winger Mbeumo.
Dasilva recieves the ball after an attempt to clear and plays a wonderfully weighted ball to match Mbeumos run, who will have made his way from one side of the field to the other, to strike and unluckily hit the post with the waiting Watlins on hand to tap the rebound home. Stoke will need to be better in how they pass players along across the defensive line. The space orientated system they deploy has huge weaknesses, especially against teams with good wide player rotations.
From Frank's point of view, another clean sheet would go a long way to help continue to apply enough pressure on those above. The reverse fixture at Griffin Park was a turgid event, like a number of matches before Brentford moved away from the 343 system. On that day, Stoke could have seen themselves take the win if it wasn’t for Raya making a big 1v1 save against the now departed Etebo.
The Spanish goalkeeper’s concentration and ability to make big saves against the run of play could again be called into action in this fixture, as Stokes midfield cede possession and look to counter as the back five desperately try to absorb the juggernaut that is Brentford.