It’s another late night kick under the lights as Rotherham and Paul Warne stand in the way of Thomas Frank taking home a second lot of three points from Yorkshire in the space of seven days.
Our last preview focussed on the difficulties of planning for opponents in a busier than usual season. Moving a squad up and down the country safely during a pandemic only adds to that intensity.
From the thoughtless, the loudest cry is often “it’s the same for everyone”, which supposedly makes everything just fine.
Last time out, Warnes' team dominated the Non-Penalty xG stakes in their 2-2 draw with Bournemouth, generating over twice the shot value of a team featuring Lerma, Brooks, Solanke, Billing and many others boasting Premier League minutes.
It was the same story in terms of non-shot xG. Fivethirtyeight have newly promoted Rotherham generating double the amount of non-shot value against Jason Tindall’s expensive side.
Warne himself switched things up and opted for a 3-5-2 system against Bournemouth who have also switched things of late moving to a 4-3-3 from a 3-4-3 shape since a frustrating loss to Sheffield Wednesday.
Bournemouth have had much success since their adjustment in system making Rotherham preventing a fourth Cherries win in a row even more impressive.
So, how did they do it?
Looking at Bournemouth’s passing network the thickest lines indicate strong links between CBs and FBs.
The front two pressing system of Freddie Ladapo and Michael Smith worked well as the first shield, staying narrow when needed to block any major networks forming through the middle of the field between the CBs & Billing, Lerma & Gosling.
In fact, Bournemouth mainly tried to build up by moving the ball wide from centre backs, Ex-Bee Mepham and Steve Cook, to the full backs Kelly and Smith and progress down the wings.
To counteract this, Rotherham’s 3-5-2 system did a few things extremely well. It prevented Bournemouth making much progress beyond the middle third down those wings with Olosunde at RWB working particularly well at blocking cheap dribbles, forward or infield passes from Kelly to Stanislas or from Kelly to Billing and Gosling.
Good defensive discipline prevented much ball progression from Lerma or Gosling who recycled ok without penetrating well enough for players who saw so much of the ball.
This resulted in Bournemouth playing large parts of the game in front of Rotherham, rarely stretching them or turning them the other way.
When they did manage to break through the defensive line, it was through Billing advancing forward and releasing Rico to put in a good cross chipped up to Solanke for a headed goal that felt all too easy when compared to the hard work that had gone on upfield and before.
The midfield of Rotherham was frequently joined by forwards also supported by either of the wingbacks tucking in depending on the ball side. If Kelly came narrow to pick up the ball in the deeper left half space, inside came Olosunde with him, forming a good wide defensive partnership with Ladapo.
The three man backline sat deep and narrow and were tightly spaced only moving out wide if needed to support the wingbacks. Mattock on the left was pushed back by positioning of Lerma and Brooks on the right to create a back four or five when Olosunde joined in.
As Bournemouth tried to switch the ball to the left after overloading the right field, Rotherham worked hard to recover that side of the pitch.
A common theme for Rotherham was the reluctance to play out short. Playing out from the back, Blackman in goal went long down the middle most regularly to Smith.
In attack, Warne has coached Rotherham into leading the league in Wyscout’s PPDA metric, by some distance. Rotherham are averaging a defensive action almost 1.5 opposition passes more frequently than the next “best” team in the rankings, Blackburn Rovers.
Added to an intense pressing system we also get clever wide set pieces from corners or free-kicks, this time bamboozling a sleepy Bournemouth.
Here we see right from the beginning throws of the game Rotherham pull out a beautiful short corner routine cut back low for a first time effort.
Not long after, Bournemouth are not prepared for this short corner routine.
Mattock used inswingers and outswingers, even trying the floated ball to the back post Brentford and Pinnock became famous for last year. Bournemouth didn’t felt in control with any of these situations.
This potential outswinging corner from Wiles midway through the second half has Rotherham’s main targets waiting at the edge of the box, leaving Billings and Solanke on front and middle 6yard zones, Ladapo occupying a defender and Begovic on the goal line. It goes short and Bournemouth is in complete disarray again.
Crosses were used regularly effectively by Rotherham with Bourmeouth showing a weakness through a tentative Mepham and Cook leaving Ladapo free centrally on one occasion with the ball dropping to his feet for a tap in past Begovic on the edge of the 6 yard box.
It was more crosses, this time from open play, that saw to confuse Bournemouth defensively for Ladapo to score his second of the game with a bit more fortune this time round.
The first cross is not defended well or cleared late in the 95th minute, and Ladapo finds the ball on the penalty spot and too easily gets himself turned and clear running towards the byline.
He loops in a left footed cross which is slightly overhit to somehow deceive Begovic and loop into the net at the far post for a late, late equalizer. Nothing more than they deserved.
The last two games have seen Rotherham face QPR and Bournemouth and approach the two ties in different ways. Pushing a bit higher and pressing with two wingers either side of Smith, the game against QPR was frantic in style with a reluctance to concede any possession against a quality ball playing team. Trying to match up with Warburton’s side in a passing contest was eventually their downfall as they narrowly lost out 3-2.
A differing approach against Bournemouth, the funnelling out wide and deeper defending style was more subtle in it’s deployment. Rotherham blocked the centre and pressed the wings well, understanding the strengths of the opposition and knowing that they’d run out of ideas.
Against Brentford, we expect that we could see further use of the 3-5-2 against the 4-3-3 of Bees as it worked so well in halting Tindall’s team. Thomas Franks teams too like to build up wide but it is the build in the half spaces through Marcondes and Dasilva that could worry Warne into opting for the reactionary mid-block style favoured by Barnsley.
Thomas Frank's team will need to be switched on to Rotherham’s variety at set pieces who look like a dangerous all round team from both open play and restarts. If Warne opts to keep the game tight we’ve seen Brentford struggle without Marcondes to create anything of note.
Sergi Canos has sat out a couple of fixtures from the start so we expect him to come back in at at least one of two positions. Depending on Dalsgaard’s fitness, Frank may be tempted to start this game as he finished QPR with Canos at RWB and Pinnock at RCB. Janelt put in a lot of minutes against QPR with a hectic schedule to follow so he could be rested with Dasilva and Jensen as a pair instead of three.
Injuries and fixture pile ups are making it difficult to judge exactly what teams will do game to game so let’s settle on 4-4-2 direct back to front men for both teams, it’s easier that way.