Nottingham Forest have caused Brentford huge problems in recent years. Has what made them successful gone with Lamouchi? Houghton welcomes Frank to Nottingham to take on a vastly different team.
Analyzing Nottingham Forest is a task we take great pleasure in.
Seeing them implode and ultimately miss out on the play-offs was satisfying for so many, especially for those who saw it coming.
It was Barnsley who last season dealt the final blow, coming at Lamouchi’s one dimensional side like a Yorkshire storm to which they had no answer. During his reign - and compounded in the final throes of last season - Stubers’ team intensity and tactical brains reduced many of their opponents to frustration, leaving them unable to progress upfield or hold onto the ball long enough to string together meaningful attacks. Brentford suffered the same soul destroying fate, blasted off the pitch when it mattered most, the likes of Styles, Woodrow, Chaplin and co’s systematic high pressure forcing defenders into errors and frantically bypassing midfield.
During the ill fated match against Barnsley, Lamouchi shuffled and went with a narrow 5-2-2-1 wingback system. He moved away from his 4-2-3-1 double pivot to provide some variety and all it did was further isolate Grabban in the forward line.
Like most other teams facing Forest, Barnsley dominated the ball and even when Forest did manage to progress out wide through a wing back pushing high, their conservatism at the back acted to prevent any attacking momentum formulating.
Here we see a cautious +2 numerical defensive quadrant and we can almost add a 5th defensive player to this central unit because Watson, circled, is going to receive the ball, turn backwards and drop 20 meters to join the structure.
Ahead of Watson and why the ball is coming back towards him is Barnsley’s common defensive wide overload block of 4 v 2. Only confident attacking players are even going to attempt to try to do anything here, which Forest were not. Barnsley managed Forest in both the central and wide areas to such a degree that if it were a boxing match it would have been stopped.
Lockdown football had an adverse effect on the stodgy teams. Teams which previously prospered by sitting in deep 4-2-3-1 blocks waiting for the opposition to commit seven or eight players forward to then spring counter attacks faded into insignificance.
Lockdown football instead favoured possession, tempo and creativity. The ball was in play more and football became more concentrated in attack as fans were taken out of the equation. You either had the ball or were being carved open.
As mentioned, a stodgy 4-2-31 block was Forests and Lamouchi position of strength. Forest came to Griffin Park and had, like Huddersfield under Cowley, the blueprints of a perfect defensive game.
Soaking up everything Brentford tried out on the wings or when Benrahma came in centrally, there were no routes to goal and generally 10 players behind the ball in the Forest half. The decisive moment in the 1-0 defeat was a set piece and a poor clearance met by Lolley who hammered home from the edge of the box.
Rarely committing players forward it was almost impossible to play through. What might have helped Brentford last season was a striker like Toney, able to get up tight to lame centre backs and provide them with a threat around their feet in the box rather than pulling wide to receive the ball. Pin them back and stay within the width of the box to try to commit defenders into making a decision.
The only interesting attacking facet to Forest at Griffin Park was Ameobi pushing high and wide on the right and onto the shoulder of Rico Henry with the sole aim of providing an outball and to build attacks from, him being an aerial mismatch against the left-back.
It’s inferior football and it doesn’t end well for anybody other than Atletico Madrid.
Forest’s decision to let Lamouchi go was by no means a bad thing. His football is tired and he consistently gained Forest results they didn’t deserve. It’s the addiction to winning through trying to defend that is ultimately unsustainable and lasts for only so long.
Teams rarely get out of this division solely focussing on defending. A coordinated attacking system has to balance strong play at the back.
So where are we now with Forest? Previously, they’ve had a neatly organized deck of cards in their hands. A team that picked itself and focussed on defence. Those neatly ordered cards have been tossed high up in air, swirled around, and landed in an unrecognizable arrangement on the floor.
Chris Hughton has come in to lead a new revolution forward and he brings with him a weird nostalgic sense of optimism. He also brings with him a number of cast-offs from Fulham, Taylor on a free transfer and others who have joined to give the squad an entirely new feel. We purposely avoid using fresh because of the age of Colback, Arter, Knockaert, Christie and Freeman, who all boast Premier League experience and command Premier League wages with agents the real winners as smarter clubs are tightening their belts and transitioning towards youth and resale.
As mentioned, the deck has been chucked up into the air for Forest, and what has come down is actually an improved team compared to last season. It’s hard to comprehend that a team scoring just 10 times, (the same no. of goals as promoted Wycombe and one more than struggling Sheffield Wednesday) is better than last term but underlying attacking metrics has them creating and conceding on a similar level to Bristol City. 10 full goals behind what an average return would be from their shots tells the story. Forest’s attacking process is as good as the other play-off contenders.
Expected Points has Forest hovering around mid-table which is better than their current league position. Even without Grabban returning and things in attack remaining, improvements in the goal scoring column should be around the corner.
Tactically, gone is the Ben Watson and Samba Sow double pivot and it’s place is Samba Sow in a single pivot. In front of him two roaming eights in Harry Arter and Cafu.
Because of this, it’s far easier to break Forest down centrally when compared with last season but it offers them more options in attack. Average passes per possession is up around 10% on last year showing they’re better on the ball in midfield and there’s an improved connection with Lyle Taylor in the forward line. Wide players now have Arter or Cafu as well as full-backs to combine with meaning we’re finally seeing a team hold onto the ball to actually produce attacking phases of play.
For shots, Forest are getting into better positions more frequently but need to start hitting the target. 204 shots off target is the 7th highest which means they are shooting at around the level of play-off contenders. Shots on target FOR is bottom three and less that the likes of Birmingham and Derby County. Wycombe and Sheffield Wednesday prop up that particular table.
Against Norwich last time out, Knockaert came on and scored almost immediately from a cross to take some of the wide creative strain away from Joe Lolley. Beunidia's late deflected goal stole what would have been a good point away at Carrow Road.
Although facing a far stronger team, Forest got into some good attacking situations and are now finding ways to regularly get players into the opponents half.
For the equalizing goal, Forest have worked three players into the box - a drastic improvement on some of the attacking play last season.
The volume is there, they’re creating chances, it’s possibly time for fortune to change and improve upon the 10 goal total.
Pressing is not really a thing at Forest and we’re yet to see any kind of obvious pressing system instilled by Hughton, which isn't too surprising given his career and the evidence of him being cast aside by Brighton.
Wyscout’s PPDA metric has Nottingham Forest allowing an average of 12.52 passes per defensive action. The league average is 11.32.
Below, we see Taylor break away and try to pressure the ball which feels mainly for aesthetic purposes and the impression of him working hard rather than anything systematic.
Behind him is serious danger and a convoluted shape doing nothing to prevent Norwich forward play out wide or central.
Arter is doing little but offering up a channel to his left with either of the defensive midfielders able to pick up the ball to his right and turn with ease. In two passes six players could be out of the game due to the absence of an organised structure.
Ameobi and Guerrero are regularly not watching from goalkeeper restarts and it’s these phases that need to be improved quickly if Hughton and Forest are to balance off a commitment to move more players into the opponent's half and not conceded goals every week.
For Brentford and Thomas Frank, playing away from home may bring about a change of luck in front of goal.
Derby can now be added to Blackburn, Norwich, Boro in that they have all ended up in draws where Thomas Frank can’t seem to get his team to do enough to see out a win and over the line.
Marcondes is an important link making Brentford tick offensively with a drop off in shot volume and quality evident when he is not on the pitch.
His movements ahead of the ball and into the forward line to join Toney separate him out form midfielders all wanting the ball to feet.
Canos has shown improvements out wide and is providing some much needed energy to the forward line if lacking in areas like precision and shooting.
Leaving us with Bryan Mbeumo and how his luck has to change in front of goal soon.
Our predicted line-ups below. You Bees.