#BrentfordFC v #Boro - Brentford Community Stadium - 3pm
The final game before another exhausting round of international fixtures sees an old master come up against a relative young pup in Championship terms.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford welcome Boro up to West London after a well earned home draw against Swansea City.
Forget the tiresome cliches of Warnock teams playing hoofball. An attacking shape boasting the riches of Coulson, Bola, Spence, Tavernier, Saville and Assombalonga is as dangerous and technical on the floor as anything else this league offers.
Last time out, Warnock’s team were held to a 0-0 away draw against Blackburn. Boro looked like the home team, suffocating Mowbray’s side leaving them to scraps on the counter-attack. The main shape they settled into was the 433 which has been used more recently and now looks to be the main system going forwards.
The alternative system is a continuation of the shape favoured by Woodgate, the 352.
While Woodgate struggled to do anything exceptional with a squad possessing good balance, Warnock is in a different tier to some of the young upstarts getting top jobs because they “get the club” and “have previous playing experience”. Having found a simple 433 shape that allows Tavernier and Saville the freedom to join in with Assombalonga and the two wide players, Johnny Howson keeps the ball ticking over dropping into the backline as McNair sneaks forward in possession.
Morsy, picked up for pennies during the Wigan fire sale, steps into midfield more often when Boro play 352. Whether Warnock switches back to this shape instead of matching up with his own 433 will be interesting. Having a man up and which switched into two men up in the central areas against Brentford in midfield was successful for Stoke. Warnock would have watched that dominance closely.
While holding serious credibility going forwards, the real story of Boro’s season so far is one of defence.
Having gone 270 minutes without conceding a goal, Boro currently lead the table for teams conceding the lowest cumulative total of expected goals.
This is also backed up by shot volume. Boro are 2nd in the league for average shots conceded per game (9.4), only behind Swansea City (9) and ahead of Brentford (9.6) in 3rd.
Flooding into the league like a bad smell, there is a growing obsession with teams playing 3 or back 5 systems badly. Usually, this is to compensate for defensive weakness and a lack of athleticism or players ineffective in 1v1 duels but due to the recent success of Sheffield United and others, it can be spun as a way to help improve how a team builds up and plays out from the back while increasing the amount of defensive first minded players on the pitch.
Swansea have mastered this combination for what we prefer as the right reasons and showed midweek that if they can keep players fit throughout the campaign there will not be many teams that finish ahead of them this year.
For Brentford, the question remains which non-preferred combination across the back four causes the least disruption.
Mads-Bech lining up as the LCB with Pinnock switching over to RCB is fine against non-pressing teams who prefer direct or aerial attacks. MBS showed some good recovery pace against Luton, it was the ease at which he was caught high and out of position that was concerning.
Goode playing RCB leaves Pinnock in his favoured position. This should be the optimum choice in terms of team build-up but makes Brentford weaker defensively if teams can pin their most mobile forward on the shoulder or around the feet of the ex-Northampton man. Goode is performing as the weaker defender out of the three options so the ultimate answer could be as simple as only play Goode if squad fitness dictates it. Pinnock will perform wherever he is positioned.
Inside the first 5 minutes, Goode is not switched on and confused by his own location, the space in front of him and not connecting cleanly with a pass, something that is becoming all too regular when he has time and space on the ball.
Raya plays Goode a simple ball.
Charlie does the hard work and waits for Lowe to commit before getting him on the wrong side.
The game opens up but Goode has already planned to finish his drive forward by cutting the ball square back to Pinnock instead of assessing how much the game has opened up in front of him.
A forward run commits Bidwell, frees Dalsgaard to move into space and starts a Bees attack. Instead, luckily, it turns into a weak Ayew shot.
Brentford are creating good team chances but wish even more would fall to Ivan Toney or Marcus Forss. With 10 games gone the pair are outperforming their expected totals by over 5 goals.
Sergi Canos continues to frustrate and confuse when the aim of his involvements should be to keep things simple and the ball away from Brentford’s goal when coming on to help defend leads.
Jon and David had a lengthy discussion on Canos for us and tried to dig into the reasons behind his continued selection as a defensive wide forward ahead of others.
You can listen to their discussion via the link below.
https://player.acast.com/5f9b431079a3745f22334e42?theme=default&cover=1&latest=1
So, the final game before another international break poses a further test for a squad being pushed to its limits. Defensively, the squad is leaning on players who need more time to settle into being able to deal the demands placed upon them. In attack, Toney is carrying the team and finishing at a level that looks worryingly unsustainable. Output and attacking contributions need to come from other areas which questions the continued selection of Canos in a forward position. Is it finally his time?