#HullCityFC v #BrentfordFC 12.30 Sat - KCOM Stadium
There’s no time for self pity in this division. The relentless nature of the league allows you to almost immediately put a bad result behind you.
After a tricky home fixture in which Brentford came unstuck against Forest, next in wait lies Hull City and a testing away trip to The Kassam stadium.
Testing, due to the geographical location and previous record, it may be that a trip away from Griffin Park provides some tactical respite for this side. If a match is not a local derby or against a team that believes themselves to be a more progressive side, TW8 can be a suffocating place.
So on to Hull, this term managed by Grant McCann, who only last season was minutes and a penalty shootout away from a League One playoff final with Doncaster, pipped by eventual promotion winners, Charlton.
The Tigers are on a bad run of results. They’ve succumbed to three league defeats in a row and have lost all of these matches by a single goal margin.
Is it time for alarm bells and panic stations with the emergence of a deeper rooted issue or are they finding themselves on the wrong side of the luck?
If we look at the underlying numbers behind this run of defeats, Hull can count themselves unlucky. They’ve generated a higher expected goals value than that of the opposition in each of these losses.
When starting this preview, we found Hull City a straight forward dissection. A standard 4-2-3-1 shape which capitalized on their star wide runners, Grozicki and Bowen.
Sadly for Hull, we’re in a transfer window and they’re on the cusp of losing their two most effective players, selfishly unravelling the simplicity of the preview and bringing chaos upon the side.
By the time this is released, Bowen could finally be a Premier League player, while Grosiki could have posed for official photos in the colours of WBA. The next part of the preview now almost becomes a “what are their new clubs likely to be getting” section.
These outgoings rip Hull apart. The two players are pivotal in making the 4-2-3-1 less predictable and work as well as it does. At times, Grosicki and Bowen can combine as the most advanced players to work as a front two.
Bowen has the broader range of movement, so effective starting on the left with his direct running and ability to use both feet, he’ll regularly drift inside with the ball and move all the way to the opposite side of the pitch, bouncing a return pass with a central striker to develop a situation to shoot or switching the ball out to Grosicki, patiently waiting to isolate a right back.
As a defender, show him outside onto his weaker right foot and he will gladly move into that space, using the area to attempt a cross or shoot.
In the final third, show him inside onto his left and you open up the option of him drifting into central areas. If defensive lines do not move across quick enough, space opens up giving him the opportunity of finessing or powerfully letting off a shot.
How do you stop him over 90 minutes? The prospect of not playing against him is delightful, his work rate, especially in the wide areas hugely undervalued.
Playing a left footed player on the right hand side has many benefits. Especially one that can combine the use of his right foot. Mbeumo offers similar positives to Brentford and
Receiving the ball on the right with his back facing goal, quick control and movement inside onto his left foot opens up the central areas and a route to the left side of the pitch.
It’s not always about what he can do on his own, the speed at which he can move the ball to the opposite side of the pitch before a defence can shift over is a dangerous skill.
Earlier we said Hull are likely to be devastated by the outgoings of their prolific wide men. At surface level this appears to the case but looking a little deeper, McCann may have already pre-empted the outgoing Bowen. Malik Wilks, a player who excelled in McCanns Doncaster side last year has joined on loan from Barnsley. Wilks has been phased in already and can come in and consistently perform the vacant inverted right sided winger role.
If fit, we believe McCann will go for a midfield three of Lopes, Kane and Irvine to match up with Brentford’s three.
Having worked with McCann to great effect last season, Herbie Kane has joined on loan from Liverpool and immediately forced his way into one of the central midfield pivot positions alongside Lopes. Both can alternate and drop deep to pick up the ball in the build up stages as well as being comfortable driving into or receiving the ball in more advanced areas.
Younger and naturally more mobile than the pivot Brentford played against in the Forest match, Lopes and Kane will be drawn further out of touch with their back four than the routinely disciplined Forest central pairing.
Back to build up, we’ve seen Lopes dropping into the right back position to cover for McKenzie. This can create a 3-3-2-2 giving the side good options in vertical areas.
We earlier mentioned expected goals and how Hull are finding themselves on the wrong side of results. Set Pieces Against are an area where the The Tigers need more defensive bite.
During the last 5 matches in the league and cup, Hull have conceded 4 goals from set pieces.
None were direct free-kicks and two were from throw-in situations.
Both goals conceded against Huddersfield came down their right hand side, the second almost immediately after a tactical switch, moving to a back 5 with RB Mckenzie swapped for Eaves to create a 3-5-2 shape in which Lichaj moving into the RCB position.
The first was a typical Karlan strike resulting which resulted in his customary goal. Hddersfield managed to isolate Grant v McKenzie on the left hand side, fed quickly by Bacuna, Grant received the ball in the left area he adores, and although he had a heavy touch, showing McKenzie plenty of the ball and gave away the opportunity for a clean tackle to come to nick the ball and halt progress, Mckenzie hesitated, held his position by which time Grant had steadied himself and by the time the tackle attempt was made, Grant had other ideas and was placing a deflected effort into the bottom corner of the net.
We’ve gone into detail on this goal because this is the exact attacking ploy Benrahma will be looking to recreate.
A brief look at the below shows the number of players used across the last 5 fixtures. Brentford's midfield has so far seen little surprises, transfer deadline day will see incomings so expect this to change across the next 10 as fatigue and the effort to change games increases.
McCann has used multiple central midfield options, it looks like an area he isn’t ever entirely satisfied or content with what he is seeing throughout games.
Where is this battle won and lost? The midfield is the obvious area. Brentford’s away mid sitting 4-3-3 can quickly spring a flat midfield 3 into an inverted triangle, aiding ball progression and the route to delivering the ball to Mbeumo and Benrahma. Drawing the Hull midfielders out of their positions could prove to be key.
It seems the game is going to come around too quickly for Pontus Jansson. If this is the case, Jeanvier will again partner Pinnock as the RCB. Brentford's record without the Swede needs resolving. Jeanvier lacks the concentration and positional discipline of Jansson and needs to be better at how he handles big situations.
Eaves is a player that finds himself in brilliant positions, only let down by his finishing in front of goal. Don’t be surprised to see him pray on the clumsiness of Jeanvier.