Just a few brief words form us in the run up to the #BrentfordFC fixture against #ReadingFC
Firstly, is there any preference to the format of these graphs. Text next to each badge or a cleaner graphic with badges only? Drop us a message or leave comments below.
Secondly, looking at what the graph is showing us, Reading is not an outlier in terms of shots. Both shots for and against, The Royals are bunched in with a group of median level teams.
What does this mean?
Reading shot off like a missile as early season pace setters. It’s easy to look at their early records in defence and attack and conclude that they are going to fall away and don’t have the staying power to go the distance. From the data, Reading is outperforming their xPts totals. They’re closer to Sheffield Wednesday, who are propping up the league, than Brentford at the top of the tree.
This being said, don’t underestimate what a good early start can bread around a club. Because on top of a rise in confidence and belief, players across the squad can also improve, and take the chances they are given with both hands, like Olise.
Reading’s system is a straight up 4-2-3-1. They, like almost every other club, may be suffering with injuries, but Olise and Ojaria in the three behind any of their strikers is enough ammunition by way of passes or shots to compliment any team at this level.
Observing Reading across their last couple of fixtures, there’s a hint of a weakness on the ball when they play out short from the goalkeeper in their defensive third. As we mentioned at the top of the piece, as confidence grows, so do expectations and the demands form the coaches. Morrison and Moore as centre backs connecting with the two midfielders Rinomhota and Laurent can all be guilty of wanting too much time on the ball.
Without being able to hold off challenges, they can fall into the trap of turning over possession in the most dangerous of areas. When they go to the forward line directly or spread out and move the ball wide at speed it’s fine, under pressure or when they delay there are big problems with holding off the opponent and decision making in which pass to select. Ojaria dropping into the middle third is a calming influence on the team during build up.
A number of high turnovers to Norwich occurred before the eventual cataclysmic giveaway for Beundia’s opener in the 2-1 defeat last time out.
It was similar in how long they took to settle in their match QPR. A delay in moving the ball away from the side QPR are loaded they end up playing right into a waiting trap of players.
It’s a quirk to watch out for in the first quarter of the match.
Overall, Reading are committed when defending, they’re good out of possession and on the counter attack. With Ojaria and Olise they have to wow factor in the final third. They're a well balanced team with some dangerous attackers.
For Brentford, it’s a case of keeping the team as fresh as possible. Have enough energy in the tank in midfield and in the wide areas to get the ball into Toney in the box and let him do the rest. “Non-shot Expected Goals For” has Brentford as a middle of the table team. Many teams are moving the ball into dangerous areas more frequently than The Bees, but who cares when you have a hitman as deadly as Ivan.