#BrentfordFC v #PrestonNE
Sunday 4/10/20 - 2pm
Preston have had a frustrating start to the league season and are still in search of their first win. Let’s hope the hunt continues late Sunday afternoon.
Neil’s team are yet to score a goal at home having lost both Deepdale fixtures 1-0. Their away league match to Norwich finished 2-2 with them giving up the lead twice.
It’s easy to look at the table and assume chaos at a club with just one point on the board after three games played, two home losses and the news that an appeal to have a dismissal overturned by the FA has failed.
A deeper look reveals Preston have been on the back of marginal defeats and scored twice when facing one of the division's strongest sides.
A strange red card for Barkhausen vs Stoke last time out turned a game they were comfortably dominating into an even match up. Until the sending off, Stoke had next to nothing in attack and even with a man down Preston were relatively solid and created their own chances as the Potters struggled with ideas and found it difficult to pull defensive players out of position.
Alex Neil is one of the league's best coaches with a squad stocked with strong runners and good ball players who combine that with physicality in aerial and ground duels.
He has two identifiable systems and used one in each game against Brentford last season.
Will AN play the 4231 or 532 system v Bees?
The most common used system is the 4231 but there is also a 352/343 hybrid, the latter starting the match at Griffin Park during the lockdown run to the playoff final.
The principles remain the same in both, Neil does not allow the opposition time on the ball in their defensive third. His front two will be mobile and spread their position both in and out of possession.
He wants to make sure he has two midfield players under the ball at all times also making prioritising that when these midfielders win the ball they have quick progressive options to forward players that have pulled or stayed wide. The development of his second system appears to be a push towards him wanting to match up with opponents and a reaction to a team like Brentford.
Some of the more possession based teams have started to generate a head of steam in coming out on top against Preston. Losses in a row last season against West Brom, Fulham and QPR prior to lockdown started to raise eyebrows. Had the possession based styles figured out a way to suck in the press of Neil’s team and play around the gap in space between the front line and his double pivot? What was also concerning was the depth of space out wide and how teams started to outnumber Preston in the wide areas, whether that be in game through a formation change or abusing the narrowness of Neils own 4231 or 442 diamond.
One of the ways the Scot finally attempted to counteract this wide conceding of possession was through the shift to a 352 system. Whether it be the exciting Darnell Fisher or a more concervative Rafferty, to stem a string of disappointing results and stalemates post the Coronavirus halt to football matches, Neil has tried to plug the gap between wide forwards and the full backs.
It’s first use came about for July’s game vs Sheffield Wednesday where Preton matched up 352 vs 352 at Hillsborough. Happy to give up most of the ball and hold a deeper team position, Preston went big on their central congestion and their quick forward ball counter attacking model which mostly stifled Wednesday until they were sunk by three Preston goals, two of which started with clever play by the third defensive player in the left back area.
Another benefit to this system is having three centre backs on the pitch as well as being able to have Johnson as an advanced midfielder to pivot from ahead of a holding pair behind him.
Daniel Johnson has missed out recently through a groin injury and he is the variety in a team of similar in style right footers. Left footed and the type of midfielder who can travel well with the ball to evade pressure, he also makes dangerous runs off it and poses one of their main box threats. His passing either on the edge of the box or in the wide areas where he sometimes pulls is effortless and effective.
Both Johnson and Fisher are likely to miss out through injury and the absentees are positives to take into the game for Thomas Frank as he works out how to beat PNE on Sunday.
Preston and Johnson benefited from a large number of penalty decisions relative to their touches in the box last season. It is no surprise to see Scott Sinclair already off the mark from the spot in 20/21.
We began an analysis last season approaching it from different angles with @BeesAnalytica. Some of the findings are transferable when specifically looking at Manchester United, another outlier in the top division. The analysis can be found here - https://beesanalytica.substack.com/p/manchester-united-and-penalties-debate
As the season is still only three games in, we have been able to watch all of Preston’s league matches. We identify some features from two of those games.
Norwich 2 v 2 Preston - 19/09/20
Norwich & Preston both played 4231.
This formation is proving more and more popular up and down the leagues. The reason is it so widely used is because it is a type of non-formation. By that, we mean it can quickly change shape during the various phases of the game. For instance, in the attacking phases it can seamlessly move to a 424 and in the defensive phases it can move into a 452
Preston concentrated their attack against Norwich around three forward players plus Browne.
During periods of the game where the double pivot of Ledson and Pearson have safe possession in the middle third we see the front three players rotating between themselves. left, right, short, inside and on the shoulder, they strive to make it as confusing as possible for the opponents backline.
Preston, from the middle third, use long balls out wide as a tactic to move into the final third. This in itself is not necessarily the phase they are trying to get through on goal, they use this to pivot again and move the midfielders forward to back up the forward four.
Sinclair has a starting position on the right side of the 4231. With clever movement he finds himself central and playing as a false nine or the furthest player forward for Preston. This type of movement from Sinclair has a large bearing on the second goal and is both a strength in attacking phases of the game and a weakness in defensive transitional situations.
Because of this attacking rotation Neil likes his defence to pay it off. We do not see wide combinations passes between winger and fullback. Fisher can sometimes appear wasted in his role. He is a strong runner and also possesses a good right foot for crossing, passing and shooting yet tends to hold his position in line with a deep back four. He scores a well taken goal against Norwich so Neil likely has the balance right.
Norwich without too much difficulty regularly switched play to the left hand wing as fullback Quintilla was able to get forward into space as the out ball when play was on the right.
Almost all of the crosses from the left hand side of Norwich find their way into the box partly due to the system. This is also the case form the right hand side.
Are the fullbacks a danger - Preston tend to use full backs as defensive minded players holding their position.
Playing out from the back - Comfortable playing out from the back in multiple ways. Long down the middle to forward, short to split centre back, chipped wide to right or left back or short down the middle to deep midfielder.
Strengths -
GK is comfortable playing out multiple ways. Defenders take no risks.
Forward line has strong runners on and off ball - can split and apply pressure all across a backline with either 2 or 3 forward.
Defensive midfield protects back 4 well - rarely caught ahead of the ball.
Strong in aerial duels.
Good in attacking transition
Strong in centre of the pitch.
Offensive set-pieces.
Weaknesses -
Fail to prevent crosses.
4231 formation leaves huge gaps down the wings to attack.
Large distances between winger and full backs in defensive transition.
Preston 0 v 1 Stoke City - 26/19/20
Early in the game 11v11 Preston produced a fine free kick routine which Stoke had no answer for. 3v3 on the back post. Browne is going to join and Stockley is going to make a run around the back. Nobody moves or decides to follow him. The delivery is perfect and he is close to taking the lead with a left footed volley.
Browne highlighted below now joins the back post to create a 4v3. Stoke do not adjust or react in bringing a player over. Stockley makes his dummy movement and begins to run around the back.
The delivery is perfect, taking all of the Stoke defenders out of the game.
It is a difficult skill and Stockley makes a strong contact but cannot pull it back toward goal enough.
At 11v11 all of the attacking came from Preston.
In the 27th minute we see Preston get men over on the back post again and Stockley is basically free. Stoke are lazy and get lucky with an offside call. Brentford need to watch for this delivery and delayed ‘run around the back’ from Stockley if he forward is to feature.
Prior to Millwall we spoke about how this type of team is the opposite of what Brentford would like to play each week. Millwall stuck to their guns with three players in their defensive line and two midfielders Ryan Woods and Leonard under the ball at all times.
In the lead up to the goal against Millwall, Brentford did something they found a struggle all game, they got midfielders beyond the Millwall midfield pair tasked with protecting the space in front of the back three. It comes from a Bialkovski long goal kick. Dasilva wins a header and flicks it back to Nørgaard who first time volleys it forward straight to Toney to control, catching out and breaking the midfield two line of Woods and Leonard.
This forward ball and control from Toney is a trigger for Dasilva or Marcondes to drive forward and support the forward as he looks to bring others into play. Woods and Leonard are used to having Pearce and Cooper clean this up and head back towards Brentford's goal so are caught a little cold with their reaction.
Dasilva in one motion controls without breaking stride bursting towards the back line with
Toney peeling off to the left of him too.
Sergi Canos comes narrow and plays a first time ball over the top and into Toneys path on the penalty spot.
It is almost perfect but the move breaks down through a clearance / deflection and MIllwall recover numbers but without the organisation of usual. The ball ends up right and high up field with Daslgaard supporting wide.
He has time to clip a deep cross back post to Toney who gets the wrong side of Huthinson and is brought down.
Marcondes, tracked by Romeo will make the nearer central run if Dalsgaard drops it shorter.
Toney hovering at the back post shows the kind of movement that shows why he has been tracked hard by Brentford. His first movement is backwards to pull Hutchinson, who wants to stay touch tight, away from the area Toney eventually wants to connect with the ball.
As Hutchinson moves back towards him he moves the other way back towards goals and gets the wrong side. The defender has no other option but to connect with the striker, hoping to put him off or alter clean movement towards the ball. Toney feels the pressure and goes down under the challenge.
Brentford are known as a pretty on the ball team yet a number of their successes in recent seasons under Frank have come from direct play via moving the ball forward to a striker to hold the ball up and support him with good numbers before defences have a chance to get set.
Brentford - league non-penalty expected goals split by player.
In attack, Sergi Canos sat out the midweek cup match win against Fulham which could be a sign he is due to start against Preston. Thomas Frank has an issue on his hands.
With a devastating performance in the league cup, Benrahma has shown that even with a lack of match fitness there is a huge gulf there is between the two wide men. Canos does take shots and create chances. The broader questions around his game are now how many of the possessions he is involved in are turning into chances. Compare those successful possessions with those that turn passive, turn backwards or give the ball away. Ghoddos quietly slipped into the side midweek with a confident display picking up an assist and showing clever link up play with his new teammates. He will be forcing himself into the team soon enough.
Rico Henry is predicted to shake off his injury and make the starting lineup for Sunday. He has played an astonishing amount of football in the last twelve months which could have contributed to his issue.
Another player who has played a considerable amount of football is Christian Nørgaard. That could soon be about to change as Brentford try to eradicate any hint of a problem position during the last five years with the pending arrival of Vitaly Janelt.
Likely Alex Neil and Thomas Frank selections below