Brentford FC v PNE Tactical Preview
Griffin Park 5.00pm - 15/07/20
Three rounds of regulation matches remain before the Playoffs. It’s difficult enough previewing these fixtures with the speed at which they are coming around, imagine playing in them?
The contrasting fortunes of lockdown football is borne out in the results of Brentford and PNE. One side cannot stop winning, it’s now seven in a row for Thomas Franks’ team, the other, coached by Alex Neil are finding life difficult with the one win in six.
Looking like a comfortable shoe in for a top six spot prior to the pandemic, Preston have returned down on their luck and are close to blowing their chances. A solitary win over Sheffield Wednesday has kept them above water but time is running out before what could be a make or break final day match against a revitalised Bristol City now rid of the burden that was Johnson.
Because things are so precarious for teams at the top and bottom of the league we thought we’d point you to a Ben Mayhew Championship tweet doing the rounds. Drink it in.
Back on to Preston. Alex Neil comes to London bringing another 4231 variation. We really do lose track of how many sides play like this and while it is a lazy way to describe a team, it quickly gives you an overview of the team's main principles.
A back four, two protective or destroyer midfielders, a line of three in front of that and then a lone striker. The type of players selected within that structure is how a team can separate themselves from another. Nottingham Forest deliver the formation in an ultra defensive fashion. They enjoy defending and sitting deep as a team. Home or away they will regularly find their back line almost on top of the goalkeeper with another five players in front but all behind the ball. Grabban can be seen large stretches away detached from any team mate as an out ball or ready to come alive in an advanced position during a counter attack.
Preston have been cleverly assembled to have more flexibility in how their players position themselves and move out and back into their 4231. We see a lot more variety in their midfield and forward lines compared to others in the division. The way the players rotate is effective and Maguire particularly gives them one of the league's best off the ball threats with his control of long balls as well as being dangerously creative on it.
This is what separates them from other teams playing the popular formation and their effectiveness is shown by their underlying shot data. What can be confusing when analyzing Preston is how a team so strong defensively is able to cause opponents regular damage at the other end.
Preston care about attacking and attacking at speed with constant movement in the final third. There is an obvious charge from Neil to make sure the ball is hit forward towards the box as soon as an opportunity presents itself. Because Neil wants his forward line to all be good off the ball runners and strong at aerial duels, he looks for both high tossed balls from midfield or lower balls played into wide areas to match runs if any gaps present themselves. The key always stays the same. Defend well and in good numbers while making sure the ball is hit forward quickly.
Of the possessions going back and forth throughout a match, Preston are only fractionally above average per game with 51% of the ball.
Delving into the type of passes they play, they make the most to be categorized as long by Wyscout and that is by some measure at over 58 passes per 90. The next is Stoke with 52 p90. The league average is 46 p90.
The classy Bees Analytica helps demonstrate this above. Watching Preston back, the video portrays a team attacking with speed or quickly making attacking situations. They transition from front to back well and without Fisher in the side we see their full backs stay home allowing the rest of the team to attack. The graph helps us understand how they give the impression of solidity without compromising other parts of their game. Fractionally behind Strubers’ Barnsley, they are almost making the most passes into the final third. These passes don't have to be accurate, it's the volume and the point that they are all challenged that underpin what Neil wants from his side.
We briefly mentioned him earlier and flagged Maguire as the danger in the front line and more withdrawn in central or wide spaces. His clever positioning can regularly make Preston look as though they are playing a front two.
Unlike Forest or a Derby, or even West Brom and Fulham, whose centre forwards due to a lack of organised or coordinated pressing can look isolated and as if the are playing in a different match, Preston make sure their’s, whether it be Stockley, Maguire, Barkhuizen but less so Nugent, has a partner in close proximity to keep attacks continuous.
Getting the ball into the box as urgently as they do has its rewards. Preston have earned almost double the number of penalties of Brentford and are hovering over double the league average with eleven.
Are Preston running hot in how many penalties they've earned or is Neil’s side benefiting from the game ideals we’ve spoken about.
Are they quicker to throw themselves to the ground or is the increase in the amount of times they are creating these situations through a higher rate of touches in the box relative to their possession all their own doing?
Looking at Brentford’s touches in the box p90, they’ve earned themselves six penalties
Prestons’ touches in the box per 90 minutes played is around fifteen, almost seven less, from which they've earned eleven penalties. We need to look further into this area with more detailed data but with three games still to play this doesn't look like averaging out.
So while showing good verticality in attack and how they move the ball forward, Neil has a side that cares greatly about defending and defending well.
This combination has led them to the cusp of the playoffs and a similar position in underlying data.
Last time out v Forest, Preston achieved something Brentford failed to do twice in not losing. In one of those matches they also manage to come back from a goal down. How they did it was through some of the tactics we mentioned in the earlier analysis. Not afraid to move the ball forward in the air and challenge aerially instead of trying to pass through the tight on the floor gaps Lamouchi’s team like to condense .
The three in front of the pivot are asked to work hard and flex between giving Preston a front 3 or a midfield 5 in or out of possession.
We also sometimes see Preston slip into a 4222 shape as fullbacks, especially Rafferty, stay home and protect almost like a secondary set of wide centre backs.
But there is defensive vulnerability down their left hand side with Sinclair and Hughes and the coordination between the pair and Johnson. Johnson can be asked to play on the left side of his pivot and or the left of a three and has to do considerable work to help defend the flanks. From video, Sinclair can play too narrow or too high up the pitch to help Hughes at left back effectively leaving an area to run into.
The reverse match up at Deepdale was, as mentioned in some of our recent previews, when Brentford were still playing their back three system with Jeanvier at LCB. You can read about ball progression issues in other reviews. Preston allowed space out wide for the wing backs to run into although Mbeumo, linking well with Sergi Canos, struggled that day earlier in the season with some heavy touches at vital moments.
Where Brentford were not allowed to dominate was centrally and it finished a ruthless display from Preston. Our final description rests on them being like chameleons. Their 4231 or 4141 or 4222 or 442 is fluid and hardworking and has been built to be successful in both attack and defence.
Brentford have themselves become the apex predator of the Championship. Seven wins in a row and on the kind of form that is ready to pounce if the automatic spots open up or they have to mix it in the playoffs.
We’ll know how this plays out soon enough.
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