Brentford FC v Fulham FC Play-Off Final Wembley - Tues 7.45pm
48 games boil down to this moment. Having watched so much of both sides this year, one of these teams should have pipped West Brom to the second automatic position, so instead, in a cruel twist, both must contest against each other for the third Premier League spot.
We’re not interested in historic play-off misery or terrible records from decades ago because it has no relevance to this match. It’s a game at the most neutral of neutral venues with no fans ironing out any off field weight towards either side.
There are no parallels to be drawn from Brentford teams of the past to today’s, because as a collective, these players are by far the best the club has ever had, led by the best coach they’ve ever had, and within the context of English football, already performing at top tier standard.
Vastly experienced, their opponents Fulham have relevant history they’re trying to forget. Led by developing coach and former player, Scott Parker, they have players who have experienced both winning and losing this match. Whatever happens, we’ve enjoyed many elements of both teams throughout the season.
As the season has developed, some parts of the Fulham side have evolved with which we try to cover in this preview. Some aspects remain and we’ve tried not to repeat those. For a full reflection a link to the previous match preview is here.
Fulham Strengths -
High quality when retaining possession, Parker now realises what he has in Onomah and elite level centre forward Mitrovic.
Individual Talent -
Kamara, Cavaleiro and Knockaert and Kebano all have the ability to produce dangerous strikes from wide angles, similar in style to Benrahma. Not quicker at turning or changing direction, the three Fulham players are however equally as quick when travelling with the ball at their feet. Cairney also has the ability to move the ball onto his stronger foot and strike well from anywhere around the 18 yard box. Harrison Reed moves the ball both ways and tries to set the tempo as a deep lying midfielder.
In Fulham’s playoff second leg against Cardiff there is a positional and running overload on the right hand side. Employing a variation of 4231 from the start, Onomah pulls to this side, Reid also strays to the right and has a big hand in the equalizer. He picks up the ball minutes after his team goes behind to the Nelson set-piece goal to fire a low cross towards the penalty spot for Kebano to do what all good wingers should do when the ball is on the far side, drift in and position himself as the centre forward. He meets Reids’ cross to direct well towards the goal as he gets on the wrong side of Bacuna who is playing out of position at right back.
Would they have been able to find the gears to open Cardiff up if the didn’t score almost immediately after they concede? Under Parker, they look supremely confident knocking the ball around in their own third as any three from Reed, Cairney, Christie and Ream combine to make good triangles in the wide areas to retain possession. They’ll play around and then regularly go back to the goalkeeper if nothing is on upfield. Without Mitrovic the ball is less frequently pumped long in the air as Reid, who is regularly mismatched, especially when up against the Cardiff centre backs, tends to come short. It’s the phase beyond retaining possession that sees Fulham struggle. How do you include players further ahead to convert or turn retainment and control into sustained attacks. Fulham, to us, have three major weaknesses.
Being too slow in the build up phase which can sometimes turn into or look like passing for passing’s sake, defensive set pieces and pressing in the front line when Mitrovic is in the side.
What Fulham have found in both games against Brentford, and both games against Leeds although the results are slightly different, is that their slow style in possession allows good teams to get set and compact.
Brentford found it relatively easy to control the central zones, keep compact around Mitrovic and spread themselves well enough across their half. Out of possession we regularly see the 451 defensive shape of Franks’ side unruffled with good spacing or if the ball is deep in Fulham’s third this expand to a 433 ready to pounce with good vertical options if the ball is turned over.
In the clip above Mitrovic is waiting in an offside position but we can still see the 451 structure. Even if he does stray back onside, Fulham will avoid going to his feet in such a congested area. If the ball goes high towards him that poses a lower risk threat and is contested in the defenders favour. Brentford are settled and have allowed one genuine progressive option, a chipped ball out wide into the space towards Knockaert which Rico Henry is already well aware of. Reid has got himself into a good position but it is too risky to play the ball beyond Dasilva and Benrahma who are close enough to intercept or make a connection. If the ball is moved out to Odoi, Benrahma can break free and the team move left behind him.
It is possible to pick out so many of these clips. In our scrutiny of Fulham, the passive style they’re infamously known for is due to them having to produce a lot of their build up ignoring Mitrovic. The way they involve him is to initially ignore as the ball gets recycled and moves around patiently until they can get wide into the final third and try to cross to his head.
Having to defend by winning headed duels from deep crosses will suit Pinnock, Jansson and the rest of the team. Henry and Dalsgaard will double up with their wingers and do their best to prevent crosses coming in in the first instance, but if they do, the centre backs will know what to expect and relish that type of battle as it is 2v1 with Raya keeping a close eye on any contested shots. If Mitrovic makes a clean contact and scores it will require a perfect scenario of cross to head to goal with a mistake in between.
Mitro out of possession?
What we see regularly with Mitrovic is him making an attempt to pressure the player on the ball as play comes into the zone he is occupying. If the player moves the ball away from him, dribbles past or passes to a teammate, the Serbian is out of the game unless he makes a foul.
Coming up against sides who like to build from the back, his wingers are sometimes forced into coming off the wide areas and running infield straight past Mitrovic to apply pressure on the ball as it is moved across backlines.
This type of play is not optimum but can be counteracted if Mitrovic drops into the wide areas to reassert balance to the Fulham front three, but he doesn't. The ball is now able to be played forward or it can go back the other way and progress down to the wing that now has no winger to defend it.
At defensive set pieces, Ream and Hector mark the central zone along the 6 yard box either side of the goalkeeper. Bryan takes the front post with Onomah and Christie given man marking duties to try to make it difficult for the opponents two strongest in the air to get a clean run at the ball.
Fulham are going to have to contain Dalsgaard, Jansson, Pinnock, Watkins in the first instance and after that, Marcondes, Mbeumo, Benrahma and Nørgaard from resulting knockdowns.
This clip is stopped just before a free-kick from Bennet on the right. It shows how slow they are to get set and how switched off they can be during these situations. Anthony Knockaert is having to be told who he is supposed to be marking and where. Anything quick here finds Mendez-Laing, Tomlin, Bacuna or Murphy completely free.
Brentford scored a clever goal at home to QPR with Benrahma bending a run from the back post to the penalty spot with a simple pass from Jensen on the right to get a clean first-time strike. Don't be surprised to see that kind of move against this West London side.
Tomlins’ acrobatic volley only comes around due to Fulham being unable to deal with the first ball, Hector awkwardly trying to control a ball deflected towards him at an awkward height from a save as it bounces free.
With Mitrovic out of the side, beyond Hector, they lack dominant aerial bodies across their team. This is likely a by-product of building an expensive team heavily focussed on retaining the ball.
A quick look at shapes from previous matches.
FULHAM VS Cardiff
FULHAM VS Brentford Home
FULHAM VS Brentford Away
The main question is really Mitrovic or not to Mitrovic. We briefly touched on how the video shows his lack of pressing but are Fulham a better team without their star No.9?
With him in the side, Fulham allow more passes per defensive action. It doesn’t appear a huge swing but against better opponents it can matter. Brentford and Leeds found moving the ball form back to front far too easy when reflecting on the difficulty during build up in recent end of season defeats to Barnsley and Stoke. Fulham, as expected, take less shots without him and take them from further out than when Mitro plays, shown in a reduced expected goals per game value.
The benefits with Reid as a withdrawn centre forward who can drop deeper to give them an extra man against teams playing three man midfields, comes as Fulham appear to hunt the ball down with greater ability and are able to force more defensive actions in the final two thirds. Mitrovic has his strengths, finding space and getting on the end of crosses, tight control under pressure and turning if defenders are too tight to get shots off. Applying pressure to ball playing centre backs or helping out in midfield are not them.
Reid is an entirely different prospect and we’ve picked out some clips from his off the ball work both in and out of possession in the semi-final against Cardiff.
Coming short to pick up the ball in midfield leaving Cardiff back four with nobody to mark. Mitrovic would pick up a starting position where the arrow finishes.
Highlighting Marlon Pack as a passing option or dropping in as an option for when Reed wins the ball to start an attack in his own half.
What you lose in taking one major opportunity in front of goal with Mitrovic, you gain in all round play with Reid. Depending on fitness, Parker has a big decision to make as Cardiff, like Brentford, will want an aerial battle that is more obvious in it’s movement pinned on the backline. Reid, earlier in the build up phase poses tougher questions. Do defenders leave him for a midfielder, is he going to make a delayed run from deep creating a concern with the space in behind.
Of the two games to get here, Brentford had the easier tie with Swansea as Cardiff would have been the team neither side wanted to draw in the playoffs. Swansea’s possession style is at best an inferior version of both Brentford and Fulham so both teams would have heavily fancied their chances over two legs. Cardiff can move the ball around as well as cause serious problems if they want to speed up getting the ball forward and making good use of set-pieces, so Fulham deserve a pat on the back for coming through the tie even though they at times rode their luck.
We can't preview this game without a mention of Josh Onomah. He’s one of our favourite young players and has picked up a huge amount of experience in the last two seasons. Finally dislodging Arter from the start, Onomah is different to all of Fulham’s other midfielders because he can quickly move into top speed from a standing start. He combines his incredible size with intricate, skillful feet on the ball and has the ability to run through any gaps that emerge in midfield. He can get beyond the striker, shoot from range or trick his way into the box. Add in one touch passing off both feet and you end up with a player that you ignore at your peril, turning slow build up and a passive side into one that springs alive at any moment. Onomah could very well decide the game.
With this in mind, Thomas Frank has a decision to make with his own central three to match up. Nørgaard, Jensen and Marcondes give up nothing in technical ability to Reed, Cairney and Onomah but there could be a physical mismatch. Because of this, we think Frank will opt for Nørgaard, Marcondes and Dasilva from the outset and introduce Jensen from the bench. The rest picks itself.
Frank will likely adopt a similar approach to the previous game at Craven Cottage. Out of possession, ask the team set in it’s defensive shape and spring when they have the ball.
Nørgaard will be key to the tie in both how he deals with Onomah and how he affects the game breaking from midfield. Can he be the one to pressurise Harrison Reed into rushing in the build up phase to release Watkins through on goal?
Watching Phillips this year, there are times when he elevates his side by rushing opponents, freely leaving space behind him knowing his teammates will cover. Upsetting the opponents backline rhythm, something we saw Nørgaard effectively do for the first time against Swansea as the furthest player forward showed that he is physically developing with each game.
It all comes down to this. The most transformative game in football. 48 games to earn a play-off final match against a team with a home stadium a couple of miles away seems the best and yet cruelest way to decide it all. May the luckiest team win.