Before Blackburn, we highlighted the run of fixtures Brentford were due to embark on and how difficult this period would be. Derby are up next in a rammed December.
It’s easy to look at the league table and see Derby floundering with odds on relegation favourites and because of that underestimate the difficulties they pose. Brentford’s next opponents are not the same team as that of a month ago due to having made a managerial change and the return of their most influential player, Bielik.
We spoke to the brilliant @11pts1win on the two sides of Derby.
How have Derby simplified things now that Cocu has gone?
“Under Rooney, Derby have begun to focus on the basics again. Players in the box, a more direct passing style, and chance creation closer to goal. The victory at The Den on Saturday should provide the team with much needed confidence going forward”
Analysing Derby, to us, it’s a tale of a team with and without Bielik. Without, the Rams are a mid-tier team who through some back luck and falling on the wrong side of variance could find themselves in a relegation battle.
With Bielik, they become an above average team who through some variance and good fortune could have found themselves in the playoffs.
“The Rams' record signing Krystian Bielik had been out with an ACL injury since January, but the importance of his return to the side cannot be underestimated. Bielik offers Derby so much more defensive assurance, allowing the 4-2-3-1 shape that Rooney has opted for the past couple of games to become viable, and it's no wonder why Bielik was a major outlier for ball recoveries when he was fit last season. He also frees up players like Max Bird who can now look to be more ambitious in their passing whilst enjoying cover defensively. Bielik looks to frequently break midfield lines with his passing, and will often look to carry the ball when he finds space to run into. Transitionally, he can slot into the back line in the defensive phase to provide additional support, whilst also providing Derby with a much needed level of physicality. For me he is not only our best player, but probably our most important one, too”
Bielik improves Derby on the ball.
Derby played a 4-2-3-1 system against Millwall and this looks like the formation of choice for the current coaching staff. Playing with a formalised back 3 under Cocu towards the end of his tenure, the Dutch coach did so without being able to select the one player that would have made the system work both defensively and offensively. His ex-role may still be his if he had the former Arsenal man to select over a long period.
Towards the end, Cocu’s back 3’s were handicapped by Evans. Clarke was expected to drive forward with the ball at LCB and Davis was often caught out positionally due to a lack of any player able to win the ball or press in front of him. When Cocu played a back 4, Rooney was playing in the central midfield area leaving Clarke and his partner again exposed behind or in the spaces in front.
Derby flirted with multiple midfield combinations between Rooney, Evans, Bird, Holmes and Shinnie and none of them ever looked comfortable either controlling games with possession or defending without the ball.
Now seemingly settled back to a 4-2-3-1, Bielik gives Derby many benefits and options. Building up with a back 3 when Bielik drops in, this shape relieves an overburden placed on Matt Clarke to move the ball into midfield. Forsyth or Buchanan sit outside of the LCB as a short passing option wide left. Bielik, an often open short option just in front of Clarke is a favoured and consistent passing route moving the ball upfield, drastically improving the team in the build up phase as they can now comfortably play out multiple ways.
The giant midfielder isn’t flawless, here he is caught a little sloppy on the ball and it runs away from him and to his right.
Able to play centre back, his awareness of danger and defensive midfielder qualities immediately kick in and he drops into the back line knowing that as the ball is shifted out to Jed Wallace, the winger is going to try and make himself a yard and whip in a cross. Who is there to meet the cross and clear, more than atoning for him giving up the ball?
Millwall’s approach under Rowett is direct. One or two short passes across the backline moves the ball out to the RCB or LCB which is then met by a long pass upfield down the wings or through the middle to a central striker.
From here, Millwall’s midfield push on and try to battle for the knockdowns to win the ball high and commence attacks.
Direct teams want to turn their opposition around and get them running towards their own goal as often and as quickly as possible. Here’s BIelik putting a stop to that and winning headers in the centre circle turning Millwall back the other way.
A set piece on the right wing is quickly played short to Ryan Woods who attempts a cross field ball towards Cooper waiting at the back post.
At the back post, Bielik has picked up MIllwall’s main aerial threat, Cooper, and prevents the defender from making a clean connection and outmaneuvering him so that the ball rolls wide and to safety.
This time, he is winning a header against the giant Matt Smith on the right wing. He benefits from a good drop of the ball and with his first touch he tries to play the ball forward. Players with both his passing range and size are incredibly valuable.
How quickly they get the ball forward or turn safe possession into “attack” happens at a greater speed for Millwall than it does for Brentford. Brentford prefer to keep hold of the ball rotating amongst midfielders to wait for openings before it is played into the final third.
Struggling through the loss of Benrahma and with Marcondes only featuring every other game, attacking patterns and final third options have appeared limited.
Bielik will both have a chance to drop into a good covering shape in front of Clarke and Davis or step out and win the ball during these slower possession phases. Don’t be surprised to see him completely break forward beyond Shinnie, Knight or Bird and be the first to pressure Dasilva or Jensen in the deep areas as they get on the ball.
And these occurrences can happen in attacking phases too. Breaking out of midfield, he can both start or see attacking phases continue. Here we see Bielik stride upfield and follow a chipped ball forward. For a second, Derby practically lost possession of the ball yet a brave collision high upfield saw the ball retained and the attack continued.
Against Blackburn, midfielders Janelt, Dasilva and Jensen all got caught not pressing the ball in central midfield or closing space quick enough to offer midfielders a clear run at goal.
Rothwell, Johnson and Holtby helped move Brentford from left to right at speed and Derby will attempt to move the ball wide as quickly.
Blackburn were in complete control and coasting before Lenihan's red card and Toney’s penalty.
Mowbray got his side to make the pitch wide, pull Jansson away from where he is comfortable, central, and into wide areas behind Dalsgaard and in an awkward 1v1 with a Elliott.
Elliott skips past the centre back as if he isn't there and although it’s a situation Frank will feel he has plenty of men covering, the maneuvering of the backline around this easily plus the poor competition for second ball in midfield will concern him. It also led to the opening goal.
Rothwell steadies himself and then decides to run right through the heart of the team. Not used to confident, central dribblers, Canos and all of Bees’ midfield are caught out. Bielik will try to attempt similar drives if given time on the ball. Passing forward is his favoured approach though he does possess the ability to move beyond players not looking to connect and impact him leaving openings. We could see Brenetford opt for a man orientated midfield marking system as opposed to the usual attempts to block and control space with Janelt blocking the progress of the dominant midfielder.
Set-pieces is an area where Bielik could prove decisive too. He provides Derby both cover defensively and a dangerous added threat in attacking situations.
It is advised to not to take your eyes off this one.