Bristol City head east along the M4 in this rearranged midweek fixture finally kicking off the 2021 league games for #BrentfordFC.
We’re approaching the halfway point for most teams as a clutch of clubs have one more game to play to have faced each opposition in the league.
There are less places to hide as a cruel December amplifies disparity and separates the haves from the have nots.
Bristol City are settling into an uncomfortable xG truth. With half a season now played we are witnessing them perform at a similar level to the newly promoted teams in key underlying metrics.
Thomas Frank comes up against Dean Holden who after a good start in terms of results is close to running out of all of the credit he gained in both being a new leader and fairly earned after those early season successes.
What now looks more and more like it started out through happenstance was a functioning attacking system with Weimann making runs from behind and in between Wells and Martin. Unfortunately, that appears to have evolved into a labouring 4-4-2 with no genuine width and a fragile centre.
Brentford are now unbeaten in the league since a 2-3 loss to Stoke back in October, the type of consistency Holden is desperate for.
Differing December periods saw Brentford finish top of the form table with 18 points. 5 wins and 3 draws make them the team the league is starting to worry about.
Bristol City picked up 3 wins and lost 5 times scoring 6 and conceding 10.
Their wins are by single goal margins and defeats are fair.
Injuries dominate the Bristol City discourse and discussion on their performance is caveated with the worst injury crisis in the history of crisis. They are another one of the teams unfortunately able to have produced injured 11s like this.
It’s difficult to know how much weight to place on these struggles as their major goal threats remain, and creatively, Semenyo features regularly. Their no.1 keeper is ever present, Kalas, their best defender plays and Nagy features in midfield. Dasilva improves any team in the way Rico Henry lights up Brentford's left hand side, if only Jay could have more luck with injuries, yet beyond that how many other players are making dramatic changes to this team’s fortunes?
Back to those goal threats - Wells and Martin is an expensive forward line Holden would like to have and get on the pitch as much as possible, he gets that. In midfield, if fit, Joe Williams is pushing for a starting place and Weimann occupying a hybrid 8/10 position adds some variety and powerful running in the final third.
Mawson’s reputation likely exceeds his true level as he returns to fitness, plus Vyner looks reasonably strong giving the defence some physicality if not athleticism or defensive focus.
The answer to how much weight should we place on the injuries probably lies somewhere between how good are those that are out and how much is the favoured system holding back those who are around on top of them not being able to be rotated or rested.
Let’s not forget Brentford are running a tight squad themselves with Mads Bech Sorensen stepping in comfortably and Pinnock playing on the right side of defence to deputise Jansson’s commitment to the treatment table.
Nørgaard has missed most of the season and three central midfield positions have mostly been rotated between Dasilva, Jensen, Janelt and Marcondes.
Mbeumo, Canos and Fosu have shared the wide positions as Forss backs up Toney.
Having few players to pick from is seemingly fine if systems are beneficial to the players and the players are able to function.
Tactical thoughts ahead of the game v Bristol City
Bristol City formations are basically described as either a 3-5-2, which was preferred and used in the earlier stages of the season and a 4-4-2 shape, now used regularly with Massengo coming in off the left wing.
There is little flexibility or extraordinary movement in the wide areas. The central midfield pair looks static in and out of possession without either protecting the back four or progressing the ball well. Forwards are often isolated but there are glimpses of good deeper hold up link play or dialogue with midfield which is undertaken by Martin but not regularly enough.
When choosing to play a front pair as Holden is, there has to be a number of non-negotiables on the table for it to work.
Out of possession they must press well. Split wide, come narrow, one drops deep into 10 areas to block passes to opponents 6 or midfielders coming deep. Basic things must happen in the front line otherwise it is two players taken out of the game, especially so against a back 3 or a team strong in the build up phase which find it easy to switch the ball amongst each other before looking for a simple pass into midfield or down the wings.
As a team, the coach must set out behind the two forwards a system that reduces the negative effects of playing such a tactic.
Is the team style going to be direct so we hit the forwards often? Are we going to play wingers narrow so that we dominate possession and concentrate our attacks centrally. Are we going to sit low as a team and flood the midfield looking to win duals and second balls to create counter-attacks. The harsh truth is Bristol City under Holden do not look to do any of these things.
A 2-1 loss to Luton last time out in the league could have been worse. Nathan Jones’ side overran City out wide and got good chances through the centre created themselves or through errors. Other than the odd deep cross form the right wing they dealt with Wells and Martin as if they weren't there.
Midfielders Bakinson and Nagy did the basics in showing for the ball when defenders were in possession. From here, there is no serious passing system to move the ball into the final third or out wide. Bakinson on this occasion is not tuned in playing a sloppy ball on the volley backwards into space leaving his defender and the team with a 2v1 situation running at their goal.
Bentley makes a good save on this occasion preventing further damage.
With either formation we’re struggling to see what they are committing to.
Playing with a back three and the 3-5-2 system doesn’t enhance the team or push them on to performing extraordinarily in defence. Quite the contrary, Bristol City are allowing Bentley to face an averaging of 14 shots per match. There is only one team, Wycombe Wanderers, that concede more shots per game.
On top of this, 3-5-2 or the alternate systems of 4-4-2 / 4-3-3 is not doing anything for this team in attack with shots at both ends of the pitch a big concern as Bristol City are the second lowest shot takers in the league! They are taking one shot more per game than Sheffield Wednesday.
Having so many first team players out forces Holden into a bit of a corner but we’re not sure he’s doing anything special tactically to control games, prevent shots and create chances for his forwards.
Playing with a 4-4-2 system is confusing in that it isn't making them any more compact as a team, they're not dominating the ball and fullbacks are lethargic and not providing any width. As an attacking function, it doesn’t work.
If anything they lose numerical advantage in the central areas and the forward line becomes more detached from the rest of the team. Nagy and Bakinson get outnumbered and outmanoeuvred by any team with a staggered and slightest bit of vertical depth in midfield.
Out of possession we’re struggling to see any kind of pressing system or triggers picked up on and started by Wells and Martin. Behind them is a mish-mash combination of Massengo trying to impose himself onto the game with little support or dynamic movement around him.
Massengo played on the left hand wing against Luton and tried to drift inside when in possession. Out of Possession he was seen dropping back and support the left back albeit unnatural and he was caught out numerous times as Harry Cornick had free reign up and down the Luton right wing.
Luton’s intensity was too much throughout and it’s shown below by the goal.
When you’re struggling for team chemistry, injuries are mounting and you’re getting dominated away from home more must be demanded from the keeper to keep you in games. Granted this is a good strike and hit low, Bentley sees this coming from a long way so it is fair to expect better than this.
Defensive Set-Pieces - They appear to be switched off from throw-ins, set pieces are defended poorly, the first goal conceded v Luton is scored from a simple bent run away from the main bunch for a free hit volley for Rea.
All we are seeing from Rea is a pull to the back post, there is no blocking just a simple run away from the central collection of bodies. Kalas has his focus drawn forwards creating confusion over who should follow an overhit cross.
The result is the perfect clean connection highlighting the defensive error which bodes well for the chipped ball back towards Pinnock.
From December’s pummelling by Rotherham, here is a simple dead ball whipped in from Barlaser on the right.
Watching the video again and again it doesn't appear that Crooks (who has picked up a position right in the middle of the goal) is marked at any stage.
Bakinson is the wrong side for it to be his man and his positioning is difficult to understand throughout the phase. To finish, he makes a feeble attempt to call offside after Crooks smashes home free of any challenge. Brentford, having got three points at the beginning of a busy December, know how hard you have to work to first nullify Rotherham by holding onto the ball and matching their intensity to then begin to try to impose your own game onto Paul Warne’s team. Bristol City looked abject especially defending the wide right area. The space to roll the ball into behind Bristol full-back and winger with no pressure on the ball is poor.
What should be a comfortable 3v3 situation is exposed as Olusande has time to check his run, sort out his feet and pin-point a perfectly weighted cross onto the edge of the 6 yard box. Smith territory.
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
While Brentford’s front 3 and midfield starting 3 were all rested in the 2-1 win over Middlesbrough, most of the players likely to start Wednesday's game for Bristol City featured in the morale boosting FA Cup victory over Portsmouth.
Still persevering with the 4-4-2, Diedhiou and Bakinson linking the forward line and midfield was an impressive takeaway and looked an improved partnership in both control and positionings to Wells and Martin. Food for thought for Holden
Where do Brentford hurt this struggling team?
Obvious areas are set-pieces as Bristol City have already conceded 8 goals from these situations. They assume a numerical match up is enough in open play. A team that defends this poorly should be looking for a numerical advantage as they are easily outsmarted or beaten in 1v1 situations in both the wide areas and through the middle pair. The most used 4-4-2 neither presses well from the front, spreads wide well to cover the pitch or stays compact defensively from back to front to protect Bentley. Bristol City are currently allowing the same number of passes per defensive action as Birmingham City.
With Josh Dasilva serving out his punishment for a red card against Tottenham the Bees midfield almost picks itself. Brentford’s 4-3-3 system is clear, widely known and well understood.
Inverted wingers naturally bring dangerous players inside into the danger zones on their stronger feet. The left hand side is strong at breaking and building possession with Henry providing overlapping width outside Sergi Canos. Mbeumo is comfortable being involved in both a slower build up situation down the right or being the final pass in a phase when the ball is switched to his wing so he can isolate and stand up a left back.
If these routes to goal are not defended or filled with defensive players it’s easy to make shooting situations or dangerous passes into Toney around the box.
Jose Mourinho’s Spurs showed how to block the channels the Brentford attacking midfielders and wide players, especially Dasilva like to get the ball into. Bristol City have shown recent evidence of sitting low and blocking in a recent win against Wycombe. It is arguable that this style does not suit their players.
Janelt and Jensen will likely rotate in the deeper pivot position and Marcondes having had a good rest over the last few games will link the forward line and midfield.
Ivan Toney the selfless
What started off as taking the entire goal burden for the team, Toney (24) has steadily become dominant in zones outside the box. Able to influence the game in deeper areas, he’s enabling his flanking attackers to also move into positions to better take shots. Preston was a low point of the season, Brentford were overrun in midfield and from a defensive shape couldn't deal with advanced positioning of Browne. Toney’s movement was laboured and his touch unsure as he fought to find fitness in a new system and at a step up in league. It’s also important to recognise the improved fitness and touches of the players around him in the forward line.
https://beestactical.substack.com/p/sergi-canos
Toney v Preston
Watching Toney against Bournemouth pushing on from an all round dominant display against Watford including when the team went down to 10 men, he looks like the all round Premier League striker we’re sure he will become. The ball is spread confidently in both directions. Here he has his back to goal and receiving a pass from Canos, first time on his weaker side he swivels and hooks a ball on the volley out to Canos looking for a return running beyond him.
He’s making space for himself and holding off defenders, the team around him are responding and wingers are running beyond him. We’re not seeing the same rotations out wide but there are interesting patterns emerging when Toney drops deep and wingers come central ahead of him.
Toney v Bournemouth - Passing connections with every area of the team.
Toney v Cardiff
He’s just had a quieter month in terms of shots and goals so what better way to kickstart January than with a perfect hat-trick against Bristol City? We’ll happily take a one goal win with it coming off his shin.