Brentford FC v Blackburn Rovers FC - Tactical Preview
Brentford Community Stadium - 3pm 05/12/20
It was suggested, on paper, that November was a relatively easy month for #BrentfordFC. However you try to spin December, it’s close to being as difficult as it can get.
After seeing off Rotherham in a tricky match for the second Yorkshire win in the space of 7 days, it’s back home to West London and a run of games that will shake up the top end of a congested league to sort the wheat from the chaff.
In Dec, Bees are to play two of the three sides recently relegated from the #EPL, the league's top goal scorers in Blackburn, the early season pace setters, Reading, and Cardiff, a team with an underlying process good enough for the playoffs.
That’s all before mentioning Forest, at the time of writing scoring approx 10 goals less than an avg side would expect from the chances they’ve created, plus Derby, finally welcoming the destructive and instrumental Bielik back from injury.
So, less of the long term worry and back to the job at hand, Blackburn Rovers, who are managed by Tony Mowbray, the current 11th longest serving manager in English football, just shy of 4 years in charge.
After winning promotion to the Championship, Mowbray quickly re-established Blackburn as a competitive outfit at second tier level climbing the table in successive season’s finishing 15th and then 11th last term.
Each season has seen good progress and steady improvements to the squad in terms of growing player experience, expanding on the playing style and some shrewd incomings all leading towards an almighty start to season 20/21.
Blackburn look a stronger and more formidable side when compared to last season and it is for a variety of reasons.
Adam Armstrong is the obvious starting point. Small in stature but quick & aggressive, mobile, in that he doesn’t stay central but regularly strays wide to stretch the pitch & when in the box is able to snap shots away when others would struggle.
Shots is the natural next step when discussing Blackburn. Mowbray has increased #rovers shot volume by around 35%. They’ve been upgraded from a side taking around 11.5 spg last term to a team after 15 matches taking on avg 15.5 spg.
Armstrong is heavily involved here with the kind of volume Said Benrahma used to carry on his shoulders per game but very much so too is Ben Brereton, a physical outlier marauding the left wing and providing a slick yet monstrous wide focal point.
If you weren’t intimidated enough by Armstrong's goals and shot volume, Statsbomb recently took a deep dive into the Blackburn forward for their Doppelgängers series likening him to one of the Premier League’s English hitman, Danny Ings. http://statsbomb.com/2020/11/doppelgangers-in-practice-adam-armstrong/
He’s punished Bees before & is closer to the profile of forward that troubles Jansson & Pinnock. Quick operators who are explosive enough in & out of possession to get on the ball around and beyond the Brentford CBs & test them in behind.
Preston recently had a torrid time against Blackburn who punished them and a red card from all angles.
In this instance, we see Brereton about to drift inside taking the attention of Bauer as Armstrong bends a run behind Fisher at RB.
With Johnson and Ledson getting caught ahead of the ball soon after Blackburn win possession in midfield, they can run straight at Preston’s struggling backline. Bauer always has eyes for Armstrong and neglects the fact Brereton has spun in behind him.
Even with Fisher ready to close Armstrong down if he receives the ball to the left, Bauer still tries to cover that side through the sheer fear the Blackburn instills in his opponents.
This time, it allows a simple ball right and through to Ben Brereton in on goal for a 1v1 which he finishes well.
QPR’s Dickie also had a night to forget when facing the Armstrong pace during Blackburn’s 3-1 win. Both of the forwards' goals exploited Rangers and their obsessively high line on the counter attack. The 23yr old was devastating in his precision to drive at goal then finish leaving Dickie no hope of catching him with that much space in behind.
The 2nd of the night followed a similar pattern, this time on the half way line with more space between players and goal as QPR pushed big numbers forward late on.
Last season, #rovers felt competent during build-up without terrifying through a double pivot & third man rotating between Travis, Downing, Johnson, Holtby or Rothwell. Adjusting to the loss of Dack, they searched for a central blend.
In his absence, the ball would go down the wings and come back never really sticking, so Blackburn would try again but get caught in transition with Downing sometimes the deepest player. Graham was also very limited in pressing situations.
This term, we’ve seen an all round level up. A deeper Holtby is already close to completing more action than last term by removing Downing’s minutes and a Travis layoff to serious injury. The team appears to have greater structure in central areas & final third.
Elliot has also helped here. Playing on the right, his left foot takes him infield on the ball and he poses a danger drifting across the pitch to free a player on the opposite wing or shoot or create himself.
Reducing avg age mins & bringing in tight technicians with increased athleticism has also improved this team. Elliot & Dolan in the wide areas are 17 and 18, Brereton playing most mins is 21, Costello is 21 at LB vs Bennett, you get the idea.
An improved midfield, better defenders, better in wide areas, a younger core group of players, less reliance on 35 and 37 year olds has all combined to allow Armstrong to flourish in an asymmetrical partnership with Brereton from the left.
Blackburn’s defensive process is fairly rounded too. Expected to concede around 17 goals they’re close to being aligned with actual performance.
Non-shot xG shows Blackburn are almost as strong as Brentford (who are out in front) for suppressing opponents, preventing them from making valuable chances. It's under 1.5 goals worth of difference between the sides when looking at Non-shot actions against.
CBs Wharton and Williams battle it out to push Lenihan and Ayala, probably the best pairing, for places but dependent on fitness we can see Mowbray thinking “Wharton” to help deal with Toney aerially.
Last time out, Brentford were made to work incredibly hard against Rotherham for their three points.
Thomas Frank deployed Marcuss Forss on the left wing knowing full well Olosunde at RWB would be contained by Rico Henry and nothing extra would turn Marcus back the other way.
Fosu came in and started at RB but it was Jensen who held that position for phases in the match so that Tariqe could get high and wide upfield. We’ve seen this rotation more pronounced on the left hand side involving Dasilva, Henry & Benrahma.
It paid off too with the winger getting forward in enough space to chip a delightful ball to the back post for Toney to cushion down for Forss’ first time left footed finish.
Rotherham get caught out for the goal because in the phase just seconds before, Toney gets forgotten about as the Millers believe the main defending has been done. Mbeumo tries to cross for Toney which eventually gets cleared. Toney, however, is still lurking back post.
Fosu picks up the ball and is being closed down at speed but has already seen Toney pull off and made up in his head exactly what he wants to execute. He fakes a cross and sends Smith running off ahead of him.
In the box, two Rotherham defenders having recovered to defend the first phase are now marking each other at the back post and are running out of time to prevent this move from turning into serious danger.
Olosunde sees it all and is probably a bit shocked with the precision of the ball from Fosu out to Toney. Wood tries to close Forss down after the instant Toney knockdown but the Rotherham back line react slightly too late each action.
Interestingly, this battle has slightly shifted in previous years as Brentford evolved into a counter-punching unit as opposed to a team that always needed to be setting the agenda.
The game could get bogged down in a crowded midfield and might well be decided on how much Brentford’s own midfield can soak up Blackburn’s attack and spring out of their defensive shape.
It’s unusual for Brentford to consistently face teams that are higher volume shooters, teams better at getting those shots on target and more inventive with possessions in the final third but this is the way of the world in 2020.
Efficiency over volume is the new nature of Bees and their forwards are going to be needed here. Set-pieces will again be key as is the case now with Brentford’s all round height causing opponents an issue in who to place on Toney. And so will this man - Emiliano Marcondes, who has become a key player to Brentford especially in tight games.