#BrentfordFC v #NottinghamForestFC
Tues 7.45pm - Griffin Park
With the distraction of the FA Cup over, it’s an under lights playoff battle next for Bees as they welcome the Tricky Trees to Griffin Park for the last ever time.
The league computer has churned out 4th v 5th, with a chance for either side to put some daylight between the playoff chasing pack. The stakes are rising by the week.
Systemic of years of clouded thinking and conflicting managers, Lamouchi is the latest head coach to juggle the Nottingham Forest playoff hunt.
Forest wildly swing from one manager style to the next. The heavy influence of super agent Jorge Mendes can be seen scattered around, adding to the many different directions of a confused and bloated squad.
Their list of managers in recent years reads like a lengthy shopping receipt. They wished they'd kept the receipts for some.
For raw output, Forest are a league average side. Chances created, shots, goals, we’re looking at a side benefiting from a huge swing in fortune to sit this high in the table.
Critical questions could include whether or not Lamouchi has taken the side on much further at all? Are they still a Martin O’Neill side that now selects Jorge Mendes players? Who knows for sure.
Out of possession, Forest still move quickly into a disciplined 4-5-1.
They rarely press high up the field, instead preferring to wait in a mid block with Grabban freely detached from the main unit as he moves himself left to right trying to occupy the opposition back line.
The main aim for allowing opposition sides this early dominance when building up from the keeper and defensive line is that it allows Forest and other teams a numerical advantage in the middle and defensive 3rds.
Forest have a tactical decision to make. We’ve spoken previously about how successful teams at Griffin Park tend to not only defend deep but defend deep using a 5-4-1 system instead of the 4-5-1 plan Lamouchi prefers. Previous away selections to date do not point to an adjustment to 5 yet it is still a possibility.
In possession, Forest move into an unadventurous and 4-2-3-1 shape.
Possession is a reactive situation.
Two midfielders Watson and Sow are not adventurous on the ball. Lamouchi has found it tricky pulling up trees tactically and has instead further built on the work of O’Neill in that Forest still find possession counterintuitive.
Watson more so, but both midfielders find comfort staying in closer contact to their defenders, rather than trying to link or find an advanced player in the central part of the final 3rd or Grabban through on goal.
Grabban will focus on stretching the pitch, trying to create space between Brentford’s back line and midfield, waiting for 1v1s from long balls or sneaking in front of defenders from wide crosses.
During the build up phase, Forest can look tentative and unsure, not committed to long periods of possession. Grabban contributes to this, reluctant through his style and designated role to drop into deeper zones and help to try to dominate the middle third.
Centre backs are only happy playing short passes into their double pivot, but beyond that, if placed under any pressure from forward lines, the ball can cause panic and see it chipped forwards towards Grabban or lofted down into the right or left channels.
Sow is the midfielder more likely to vacate his position centrally. He’ll attempt to break lines with his dribbling, leaning on his physically supremacy rather than close control and can be very difficult to stop given any openings.
Bar movement from Sow, Forest are largely predictable centrally, far more comfortable regaining possession in the middle 3rd and then scurrying the ball wide to either full backs or wingers to undertake chance creation and ball progression.
Attacks from a converted Cash at full back and Lolley ahead of him on the right hand side consist of the latter moving inside onto his left foot towards goal and Cash, backing up and overlapping looking to cross with his right.
As mentioned, Forest prefer to soak up pressure and counter-attack. Behind only Leeds & Hull for goals via this situation, give the initiative to this Forest side - particularly their wide men - and they can struggle for ideas. Out of the ordinary movement comes at an absolute premium.
This current Brentford team under Frank give counter-attacking transitions away far less than previous incarnations.
Forest will find it harder to isolate Grabban and a centre back but they will no doubt try.
Opposition errors, set pieces or moments of individual brilliance have helped propelled this side to their current league position.
Grabban has punished Brentford multiple times in the past. Rolling easily beyond a clumsy Jeanvier and benefiting from the lunacy of Dan Bentley. The Forest forward is an opportunist rather than an instigator.
With Jeanvier rightfully benched and Bentley long gone, errors that sides like Forest, crave, are now given up at a far lower rate. Grabban will have to work harder to carve himself out movements of genuine danger.
Jansson and Jensen are in a race to be fit, with Benrahma dealing with a devastating personal tragedy. The Brentford side could be a weakened version of what we’ve seen perform so consistently this season.